What Happens to Russia the Day After the War in Ukraine Ends?

14th July 2025

The war may end, but Russia's The real crisis is just beginning.

What happens the day after?

Political Landscape
When the conflict ends, Russia's ruling elite are likely to tighten their grip rather than open political space. The Kremlin may deepen repression—controlling information, indoctrinating youth with intense nationalism, and using security services to silence dissent. Power will remain concentrated among an aging gerontocracy, with little chance of genuine succession or democratic reform.

Economic Outlook
Russia’s wartime economy has been propped up by resource exports and heavy state controls. Post-war, shrinking global demand for oil and gas, combined with prolonged sanctions, will drive chronic stagnation. Without foreign investment or technological exchange, the government will divert ever-scarcer revenues into the military-industrial complex, leaving public services underfunded and regions competing viciously for federal handouts2.

Military Reconstitution
Rebuilding Russia’s armed forces will be a top priority, but the process faces deep challenges. According to RAND, Moscow may pursue one of several "reconstitution" pathways: expanding troop numbers (the Shoigu Plan), modernizing a smaller professional force, reverting to mass conscription, or overhauling institutional models by looking to Chinese or Western doctrines. Whichever mix it chooses, qualitative upgrades will be hard without access to foreign technology and funding.

Societal Impact
The war’s human toll—hundreds of thousands of casualties and widespread trauma—will echo for years. A massive brain drain is already underway: professionals, artists, and entrepreneurs are leaving in droves, taking capital and expertise abroad. Those who remain will live under heightened surveillance and constant messaging that the outside world is hostile, deepening isolation and social atomization.

Foreign Relations and Global Standing
Russia will emerge even more estranged from the West, its reputation tarnished by invasion. Alliances with China, Iran, and other “pariah” states will deepen but prove unreliable, as Beijing sees Moscow as an unstable partner. Europe and the U.S. are likely to maintain a “new deterrence” strategy—economic containment and technological embargoes—to prevent future aggression. In effect, Russia will enter a prolonged new Cold War, isolated economically and diplomatically

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