Political Sands Are Shifting Fast As Corbyn Party surges 230,000 Sign ups in 24 Hours

26th July 2025

Jeremy Corbyn's new left-wing party — still unnamed but temporarily referred to as "Your Party" — has seen a massive surge in membership, with over 230,000 people signing up in just the first 24 hours.

Membership Numbers & Growth
Initial sign-ups: 80,000 in the first 5 hours

24-hour milestone: 200,000+ registrations

Current estimate: Over 230,000 sign-ups, surpassing Reform UK's membership base.

Rate of growth: At one point, sign-ups were coming in at 500 per minute.

Note: These are unpaid registrations, more akin to expressions of interest than formal party membership — but still a powerful indicator of grassroots momentum.

What This Means Politically
Corbyn's party now has more sign-ups than the Conservative Party and is closing in on Reform UK

Polling suggests it could take 10-15% of the national vote, potentially rivaling Labour in some constituencies

The party is attracting disillusioned Labour voters, especially over issues like Gaza, welfare cuts, and internal party discipline.

What Mhairi Black Might Do Next After Resigning From SNP
Black has said she's "probably a bit more left-wing than I have been" and is deeply disillusioned with the SNP's direction.

She's expressed frustration over the party's "capitulation" on trans rights and Palestine, aligning her more closely with Corbyn-style politics2.

She hinted that if the SNP moved further right, she'd consider joining another party — suggesting she might be open to joining Corbyn's new party, especially if it gains traction in Scotland.

Return as a Holyrood Candidate
Some speculate she could resurface in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections, especially if she sees Holyrood as a more effective platform for progressive change.

However, she's also described politics as "toxic" and has spoken about burnout and mental health struggles, so a return isn't guaranteed.

3. Activism & Advocacy
She's already pledged support to the Good Law Project, which campaigns on climate and trans rights.

With her strong social media presence and youth following, she could become a high-profile activist, commentator, or even documentary filmmaker — she recently promoted a new documentary while hinting at her departure.

Political Implications
Her exit weakens the SNP's progressive and youth appeal, especially among pro-independence voters who also care deeply about social justice.

If she joins or supports Corbyn's party, it could split the pro-independence left, especially in urban constituencies like Glasgow and Paisley.

SNP Figures Who Might Follow Mhairi Black Out
Below are several prominent SNP personalities already confirmed to be stepping back from Westminster or linked to departures, any of whom could now reconsider their party affiliation or public roles:

Ian Blackford, former SNP Westminster leader, has announced he will not seek re-election at the next general election and stepped down earlier this year.

Stewart Hosie, ex-depute leader at Westminster, confirmed he will stand down, citing burnout and frustration with party dynamics.

Peter Grant, long-serving Angus-based MP, signalled his exit as part of a broader House of Commons exodus by SNP veterans.

Angela Crawley, the party's equalities spokesman, is leaving Westminster amid growing tensions over trans rights and internal discipline disputes.

Douglas Chapman, former SNP defence spokesperson, opted out of the next election following years of parliamentary service.

John McNally, Falkirk MP since 1999, also ruled himself out of re-election, echoing concerns about Westminster's toxicity for women and younger politicians.

Margaret Ferrier, currently suspended for breaching pandemic rules, faces losing the whip permanently and is widely expected to depart Westminster altogether.

Impact on the 2026 Holyrood Elections
Erosion of the Progressive Youth Vote
Mhairi Black was one of the SNP’s most recognisable voices for young, socially liberal Scots. Her departure risks alienating that demographic—potentially ceding ground to the Scottish Greens and even Labour in university towns and urban constituencies such as Glasgow Central and Paisley.

Deepening Internal Divisions
The schism over gender recognition reform, Palestine and other social issues has already prompted high-profile resignations. Without Black’s platform to champion progressive causes, disputes over ideology may intensify, making it harder to present a united front to Scottish voters.

Candidate Recruitment Challenges
As high-profile figures exit, the SNP may struggle to attract charismatic replacements for key Holyrood seats. That talent drain could benefit opposition parties, who are already preparing to contest vacancies in Glasgow, the Highlands and the Lothians.

Polling Signal for Seat Losses
A recent Panelbase poll for The Sunday Times suggested the SNP could lose over half of its 45 Westminster seats—dropping to second place behind Labour in Scotland at the next general election. If this trend carries into Holyrood 2026, the party risks a significantly reduced parliamentary presence.

Consequences for Independence Campaign
Holyrood’s composition will shape Scotland’s push for a second referendum. Reduced SNP numbers and a fragmented left could stall any bid for devolved powers or a new referendum, handing momentum to unionist parties in Edinburgh.

Could Corbyn’s New Party Do Well in Scotland?

Polling Context & Voter Appetite
A "Find Out Now" poll suggests Jeremy Corbyn’s breakaway movement already commands about 15 percent support nationwide.

In Scotland, Reform UK polls around 15 percent of the Holyrood vote, while the Greens sit near 5 percent - indicating space for another left-wing force.

Decades of SNP governance marked by "progressive neoliberal" policies have left many younger and working-class Scots craving deeper social justice, creating an opening for a fresh left alternative.

Scottish Organizational Foundations
Activists around the Corbyn-Sultana project in Scotland have vowed to back the Scottish Parliament’s right to hold a second referendum, while allowing members to hold diverse views on independence itself.

Talks are under way with smaller socialist groups (SSP, SPS, TUSC, SWP), trade-unionists and community campaigners to build a Scottish branch that can contest Holyrood as part of a UK-wide coalition.

Electoral System Dynamics
Scotland’s Additional Member System (AMS) combines FPTP constituency seats with regional lists. A new party could:

Struggle to win any constituency seats under FPTP without long-standing local incumbents.

Capture significant list seats if it achieves 10-15 percent of the regional vote, especially in urban areas.

Key Opportunities & Challenges[/b]
Opportunity: A clear socialist narrative on housing, energy bills and wealth redistribution could resonate among Scots fed up with rentier-driven policies.

Challenge: Keir Starmer’s Labour and the SNP will both paint the new party as a "spoiler," risking Conservative gains unless Corbyn’s movement cements itself as a credible, disciplined alternative.

Opportunity: Under-30s in Scotland are newly enfranchised and lean left; tapping into that youth surge could result in an outsized list performance.

Challenge: Building a UK-wide party infrastructure that effectively supports a Scottish branch by autumn 2026 is a monumental organising task.

With up to 15 percent potential support and a sympathetic youth vote, Corbyn’s new party could secure several regional list seats in urban Scotland. Yet under FPTP, winning constituency seats looks unlikely without established local figures. The real test will be converting early enthusiasm into disciplined campaigning and coherent leadership across Scotland’s diverse regions.

AS the NHS in England face severe pressure from the doctors strikes many people may think it is time to try another political party.

With the outlook for a hard budget with higher taxes and welfare cuts biting in October another surge in disaffected voters may keep the push on for Corbyn's new party whatever the name they choose.

In Scotland the 2026 election looms with the SNP seemingly in disarray and in England with Reform gaining ground there has surely never been so many politicians potentially losing ground.