Potential Impact of Corbyn's New Party on the 2026 Scottish Parliament Elections

30th July 2025

A dedicated Scottish arm—organised under "Collective Scotland"—has been preparing to contest Holyrood, exploring either standing its own candidates or backing a broader left-wing alliance for 2026.

Electoral System Dynamics
Scotland's Additional Member System (AMS) combines FPTP constituencies with regional list seats.

Polls nationwide suggest Corbyn's party could command 10-15% support, a level that would likely translate into regional list seats in urban areas like Glasgow and Edinburgh.

Under FPTP alone, winning constituencies looks unlikely without established local figures; list seats offer the most realistic path to representation.

Vote Splitting and Progressive Fragmentation
The party threatens to split the progressive vote, particularly among younger Scots disillusioned with the SNP's long tenure and Labour's centrist pivot.

Mhairi Black's potential alignment with Corbyn's movement could further erode the SNP's appeal in youth-heavy urban constituencies such as Glasgow Central and Paisley.

A divided left risks unintended consequences, including Conservative gains in marginal seats if anti-Tory votes scatter.

Strategic Challenges and Opportunities

Candidate Recruitment
SNP's talent drain and Labour's disciplinary threats might leave openings for fresh Corbyn-aligned faces.

Coalition Potential
Early talks involve SSP, SPS, TUSC and trade-unionists; a united left list could amplify vote share.

Independence Stance
While supporting self-determination, the Scottish branch may allow members latitude on indyref policy.

Resource Constraints
Lack of Electoral Commission registration and donor networks could hamper campaign logistics.

Broader Political Consequences

SNP's Stability
Further resignations and ideological splits may intensify, weakening the party's Holyrood majority and stalling the independence agenda.

Labour’s Calculus
Keir Starmer’s UK-wide strategy must now account for an energized left alternative in Scotland, potentially influencing Scottish Labour’s manifesto and candidate selection.

Green Surge
With Greens polling around 5%, they too stand to benefit if Corbyn’s party draws votes away from mainstream parties, reshaping coalition math at Holyrood.

Corbyn’s new party, buoyed by half-a-million sign-ups and grassroots momentum, could reshape Scotland’s political landscape in 2026—especially through list-seat gains and splitting established progressive blocs.

Scottish Labour Response
Scottish Labour’s left wing is urging caution and retention of efforts within the party rather than defecting to a new formation.

The Campaign for Socialism, an autonomous socialist group inside Scottish Labour, has called on members to stay and "fight within the party," arguing that Labour remains "the best vehicle for the hopes of the many." They warn against handing the party to those who would "see it destroyed rather than become a vehicle for radical politics."

So far, Scottish Labour’s leadership has not endorsed any collaboration with Corbyn’s venture. Instead, they’re doubling down on internal organising ahead of Holyrood list selections and the 2026 local elections.

Scottish Greens Response
The Scottish Greens have positioned themselves as the established eco-socialist alternative on the left, distancing from any formal pact with Corbyn’s movement.

MSP Ross Greer emphasised that while Labour is "constantly lurching further to the right," Scotland "already has an organised and successful party on the left" in the Greens. He highlighted recent Green-led achievements—higher taxes on the super-rich, free bus travel for young people, and an emergency rent freeze—as evidence of their effectiveness. With more Green MSPs, he argues, “we can do much more to tackle the cost of living and climate crises.”

The party has explicitly resisted early overtures for an electoral alliance, preferring to grow its own ranks and campaign on an unapologetically socialist and environmentalist platform.

Effects on Scottish Conservatives
Vote-Splitting Advantage A divided left risks unintended consequences. Polling suggests Corbyn’s new party could command 10-15% support, primarily drawing from Labour and the Greens. Analysts warn that fracturing the progressive vote could hand tight constituency battles to the Scottish Conservatives if anti-Conservative ballots scatter among too many parties.

Extra List Seats Scotland’s Additional Member System compensates parties that under-perform in constituencies via regional lists. If Labour, Greens and Lib Dems lose list-votes to the new party, the Scottish Conservatives—whose support remains relatively consolidated—could pick up additional list seats.

Amplified Unionist Messaging As the new hard-left alternative focuses on class and anti-austerity themes, the Conservatives’ emphasis on law, order and maintaining the union may look more appealing to voters seeking stability, giving the party openings in both urban and rural regions.

Implications for Scottish Liberal Democrats
Centrist Space to Grow Polling indicates Corbyn’s new party will cannibalise the bulk of its support from Labour and the Greens. That leaves a gap in the centre-left spectrum where the Lib Dems—branding themselves as moderate progressives—can attract voters put off by far-left policies.

Harsher List-Seat Competition More parties chasing the same pool of left-of-centre votes means a higher vote threshold to win regional list seats. The Lib Dems risk losing list seats if they can’t differentiate themselves strongly enough from both the new party and Labour on key issues.

Tactical Voting Dynamics In constituencies where the Lib Dems could realistically challenge the Conservatives, they may benefit from tactical cross-party support—Labour or Green defectors unwilling to back a hard-left alternative might transfer votes to the Lib Dems to block Tory gains.

Scottish Regions Most at Risk of Progressive Vote Splitting
Glasgow Region (West Scotland)
Urban heartland with a high concentration of younger, left-leaning voters.

Potential defection of figures like Mhairi Black could tip marginal constituencies.

If vote share falls below 10-15% on the regional list, the Conservatives stand to pick up extra seats.

Lothian Region (Edinburgh & Surrounds)
Edinburgh Central and Edinburgh South West are held by Labour with slim majorities.

A 10-15% swing toward Corbyn’s new party on the list could cost Labour and Greens compensatory seats.

Progressive fragmentation here risks boosting Tory list representation in the capital region.

Central Scotland Region (Lanarkshire & Forth Valley)
Combines safe SNP seats with marginals such as Stirling and Falkirk East.

Left-vote splitting may hand more list seats to unionist parties under AMS.

Constituencies with