Fraser of Allender Casts An Eye Over the OBR -

24th August 2025

First what is the OBR.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the UK's independent fiscal watchdog. It was set up in 2010 to give an objective, non-political view of the state of the public finances and the wider economy.

Here's what it does:
Forecasting: Produces official five-year forecasts for the economy (GDP, inflation, unemployment, etc.) and the public finances (borrowing, debt, spending, and revenue).

Policy analysis
Assesses the impact of government tax and spending policies on the public finances. For example, when the Chancellor announces a Budget, the OBR provides an independent costing of each measure.

Sustainability checks
Examines long-term fiscal risks (such as demographics, health spending, or shocks like COVID-19) to see if the government's finances are sustainable.

Accountability
Monitors whether the government is meeting its own fiscal rules (such as limits on borrowing or debt).

Is it responsible for government policy?
No.
The OBR does not make or decide government policy. That remains the responsibility of the Chancellor of the Exchequer and HM Treasury.
Instead
The government sets policy (tax, spending, borrowing plans).

The OBR independently evaluates those policies and their consequences.
This separation is meant to improve credibility, so forecasts are not seen as "politically convenient."
So, the OBR is a watchdog and forecaster, not a policymaker.

If you reached this far now go to Unpleasant fiscal arithmetic has nothing to do with the OBR