U.S. soybean farmers are being hit hard by falling prices linked to tariffs and trade tension

11th September 2025

As of mid-September 2025, U.S. farmers face a major blow: no bookings from China for the new crop year, compared to 12–13 million metric tons at this time last year. Instead, Chinese buyers have booked 7.4 million tons from South America for October and 1 million for November.

The culprit? A 23% tariff on U.S. soybeans effectively adds about $2 per bushel, wiping out any price advantage U.S. growers might have.
Reuters

Analysts warn that if China remains absent until mid-November, U.S. exporters could lose up to 14–16 million tons in sales.

Trade Uncertainty Depressing Prices and Income

Earlier in 2025, AgResource warned that without a better U.S.–China deal, soybean exports could fall by 20%, from 1.865 billion to 1.5 billion bushels. Prices might plummet to $9/bushel, down from $10.60.

Even a tariff reduction from steep levels to 10% hasn’t restored competitiveness—with Brazilian producers already dominating the market.
Reuters

Wider Impacts Across the Agricultural Sector

Agricultural giants like Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) and Bunge Global saw their stock prices dive—ADM down nearly 9%, Bunge down 6.7%—as markets absorbed the toll of new tariffs and sagging soybean prices.

The picture is grim for farmers too: falling crop prices, high input costs, and fading federal support are pushing many into financial distress. Some are even calling for a new bailout.

The question is how long will it be before president Trump feels the ire of farmers who voted for him in big numbers in some states.

More on this topic
Fortune Magazine 9 September 2025
[url=https://fortune.com/2025/09/09/soybean-harvest-china-agricultural-crisis-trump-tariffs-caleb-ragland/]Farmer says we’re in a very dire situation[/url]