No half measures - Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget

30th October 2025

The recent report by the Resolution Foundation argues that the UK government is facing a decisive moment. With the upcoming Autumn Budget and the long-awaited Child Poverty Strategy, the opportunity to reverse rising child poverty is still within reach but only if the policy move is bold and substantial.

At present (2024-25) the after-housing-costs child poverty rate is estimated to be ~ 31 % (roughly 4.5 million children).

Under current policy settings the rate is projected to rise to about 34 % (4.8 million children) by 2029-30.

In other words: without strong intervention, child poverty will hit historic highs.

Why incremental steps won't be enough

The Foundation emphasises a very clear point: modest tweaks won't change the heading. The policy they draw attention to is the so-called "two-child limit" (or "two-child cap") in benefits. The report finds that only complete removal of this limit would lead to child poverty being lower in 2029-30 than in 2024-25. Partial changes or de-coupling only for working families, etc., would still leave poverty rising.

They estimate that:

Fully repealing the two-child limit could reduce the number of children in poverty by ~ 330,000 today.

And prevent a further 150,000 children from falling into poverty by 2029-30.

Even with this measure, the "headroom" (the margin by which the rate falls below the 2024-25 baseline) would be modest (~0.4 percentage points) given economic and cost pressures.

What the government has already done - and where the gap remains

On the positive side:

The government has committed to “over-indexation” of the standard allowance in Universal Credit for the next four years, meaning it will increase by more than inflation.

Also, in England all children in families receiving UC will become eligible for free school meals (FSM) from September 2026. That's projected to remove 50,000-100,000 children from poverty by 2029-30.

These welcome steps are not enough to reverse the upward trend in child poverty.

Significantly, while the standard allowance rises, the value of the health element in UC for new claimants is being cut from April 2026 and current claimants won’t benefit from the above-inflation rise. That means some of the positive effect is offset.

Further, structural pressures (weak economy, high housing costs, benefits being uprated only by prices not earnings) mean long-term drift upward unless the approach is changed fundamentally.

What the report calls for

Place income support for families at the heart of the Child Poverty Strategy. If you want child poverty to go down, you need to boost family incomes.

Scrap the two-child limit in full, not just partially. The modelling says only full repeal will push rates down meaningfully.

While targeted measures like FSM and benefit uprating matter, the trajectory suggests you need structural change and uprating benefits with earnings not just inflation.

There are costs and fiscal trade-offs. The report notes that the decision to remove the two-child limit would cost about £3.5 billion per year, which they estimate would lift some 480,000 more children out of poverty by 2029-30 compared to no action.

Why this matters for children and families

Child poverty isn’t just about numbers, it’s about life-chances. Children growing up in poverty face higher risks of poor health, educational underachievement, lower employment prospects—and intergenerational transmission of disadvantage. The report underscores that unless policy shifts, the UK risks locking in higher levels of poverty for a generation.

Moreover, politically, the report warns that failing to reverse child poverty under a government that pledged to do so risks public trust and long-term credibility.

Watch the Autumn Budget

Does the Budget include full repeal of the two-child limit? If only partial or delayed repeal occurs, the report suggests the child poverty rate will still rise.

How do benefit uprating regimes change? Are benefits being uprated by earnings (which tend to rise faster than prices) or just by inflation? The difference matters for long-term living-standards.

Are there measures to tackle housing costs and job quality? Because even if income support increases, high housing costs can erode the benefit.

Is the Child Poverty Strategy aligned with the Budget? The report emphasises that the Strategy cannot be credible unless backed by clear fiscal commitments.

Transparency on costings: The public should understand the cost of proposals—and trade-offs. The £3.5 billion figure for full repeal is a useful benchmark.

A cautionary note - the challenge of economics and politics

The report doesn’t shy away from the difficulties. Economic forecasts are uncertain, fiscal headroom is limited, and political appetite for large welfare spending may be contested. The authors note that even after full repeal of the two-child limit, the “headroom” is slim. If economic conditions deteriorate (e.g., unemployment rises, housing costs spike), the gains could be wiped out.

Boldness is needed, but also sustainability and credibility.


The “No Half Measures” report is a clear call-to-arms. If the UK government wants to genuinely set child poverty on a downward course, then incremental tweaks won’t do. Full repeal of the two-child limit, serious benefit uprating, tackling housing/earnings pressures—these are the building blocks. For anyone concerned with social justice, child welfare or public policy, this is a moment to watch closely.

Read the full report HERE