UK retail sales - bleak Thursday and Black Friday hit sales

21st November 2025

Retail sales volumes were down 1.1% in October month-on-month, following 0.7% growth in September.
The month saw sales volumes fall across supermarkets, clothing and mail order retailers, as shoppers held off purchases in anticipation of Black Friday discounts.

Retail sales had been expected to come in flat (Trading Economics).

Nicholas Hyett, Investment Manager at Wealth Club, commented, "The combination of a bleak Thursday budget and Black Friday discounts meant consumers reined in spending in October. That should come as no surprise. The government's "will-they, won't-they" approach to tax rises is a surefire way to obliterate consumer confidence.

However, it sets up an interesting series of decisions for the Chancellor and Bank of England.

Consumers are hurting and higher taxes will only make matters worse, potentially hampering economic growth and risking an economic doom loop.

The chances are the Bank of England will have to ride to the rescue with interest rate cuts, but that won't happen until after the Budget - leaving the Chancellor making decisions out on a limb and at risk of looking like she's not in the driving seat. Then again, it's possible the government is so fixated on avoiding the appearance of an economic wrong turn it has decided an empty driving seat is the best way forward."