ONS Reports October 2025 GDP Fell 0.1%

12th December 2025

October 2025 GDP: Fell 0.1%, following a similar decline in September and flat growth in August.

Three-month trend (Aug-Oct): The economy contracted 0.1%, reversing the small growth seen earlier in the year.

Sector breakdown:

Services: No growth (0.0%), despite being the largest part of the UK economy.

Production: Continued weakness, especially in car manufacturing, which only partially recovered from Jaguar Land Rover's cyberattack.

Construction: Declined, adding to the drag on GDP.

What This Means for the UK Economy
Stagnation risk: The UK economy has not grown since June 2025, with GDP either flat or falling for four months straight.

Recession concerns
If GDP continues to fall for two consecutive quarters, the UK would officially enter a recession. That would mean shrinking output, weaker job prospects, and pressure on wages.

Consumer spending slowdown
Households and businesses held back spending in the run-up to the November budget, reflecting uncertainty about tax measures.

Policy implications
Weak growth increases pressure on the Bank of England to consider interest rate cuts, while the government faces challenges in raising tax revenues to fund spending plans.

Business confidence: Manufacturing disruptions and subdued services activity highlight structural vulnerabilities in the economy, making recovery harder without stronger investment and productivity gains.

Risks and Trade-offs
Short-term: Sluggish growth could dampen consumer confidence, reduce business investment, and slow hiring.

Medium-term
If recession materializes, the government may need to balance fiscal tightening (tax rises) with measures to stimulate demand.

Long-term
Persistent stagnation risks undermining competitiveness, especially if productivity growth remains weak compared to other advanced economies.

In summary
The ONS figures show the UK economy is losing momentum, with October's contraction reinforcing a pattern of stagnation. For households, this can mean tighter budgets and slower wage growth; for policymakers, it signals tough choices between supporting growth and managing public finances.

break down the sector-by-sector picture from the ONS October 2025 GDP release and what it means for everyday life in the UK:

Services Sector (80% of UK economy)
October result - Flat (0.0% growth).

Drivers: Weak consumer-facing services (retail, hospitality) offset by modest growth in professional and IT services.

Impact on daily life

Households feel the pinch as retail sales stagnate.

Hospitality and leisure businesses struggle with lower footfall, meaning fewer job opportunities and tighter margins.

Professional services (law, finance, IT) remain stable, but not enough to lift the whole sector.

Production & Manufacturing
October result: Decline, especially in car manufacturing.

Context: Jaguar Land Rover’s cyberattack earlier in the year disrupted output, and recovery has been slow.

Impact on daily life

Fewer cars being produced means supply shortages and potentially higher prices for consumers.

Manufacturing towns face weaker employment prospects.

Energy production also dipped, which can feed into higher costs for households and businesses.

Construction
October result - Fell again.

Drivers: Slower housing projects and infrastructure delays, partly due to higher borrowing costs.

Impact on daily life

Fewer new homes being built, keeping housing supply tight and prices elevated.

Infrastructure delays (roads, public works) affect local communities and long-term productivity.

Construction workers face reduced demand, leading to job insecurity.

Overall Economic Meaning
Stagnation
With GDP flat or falling since June, the UK economy is at risk of slipping into recession.

Households
Rising living costs combined with weak wage growth mean tighter budgets.

Businesses
Investment is being delayed due to uncertainty about government tax policy and weak demand.

Government & BoE
Pressure mounts to cut interest rates or introduce fiscal measures to stimulate growth, but this risks clashing with budgetary constraints.

Services are stagnant, manufacturing is struggling, and construction is contracting. For everyday life, this translates into slower job creation, tighter household finances, and delayed housing/infrastructure projects — all signs of an economy losing momentum.