Preparing for War? What UK Politicians Are Saying — and What the Government Is Actually Doing

14th December 2025

Over the past year, a noticeable shift has taken place in the language used by British politicians and defence officials. Statements about "war‑fighting readiness", warnings that threats may be "closer to home", and announcements of large, specific increases in military spending. This has led many people to ask whether the government is actively preparing the country for war.

This article brings together all the key elements of that shift in the rhetoric, the money, and the concrete industrial decisions to explain what is happening, why it is happening, and what it does (and does not) mean for the public.

A Change in Tone - From Assumed Peace to Open Preparedness

For decades after the Cold War, British defence policy was framed around crisis management, overseas interventions, and counter‑terrorism. The assumption — rarely stated but widely held — was that large‑scale war involving the UK was extremely unlikely.

That assumption has now been openly challenged by ministers.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said the UK must move towards “war‑fighting readiness”, arguing that the armed forces must be structured not only to deter threats but to fight and sustain high‑intensity conflict if deterrence fails.

Government strategy documents describe the world as “more contested, volatile and dangerous” than at any point since the end of the Cold War. Defence ministers have warned that modern conflict does not begin with tanks crossing borders, but with cyber‑attacks, sabotage, pressure on energy supplies, and disinformation — often below the threshold of declared war.

As one senior minister put it, “the threat is no longer comfortably distant.”

What Politicians Are — and Are Not — Saying

Despite the stark language, it is important to be precise.

Politicians are not saying:

That war is inevitable

That the UK is about to enter a war

That citizens should prepare personally for conflict

That conscription or mobilisation is imminent

They are saying that peace can no longer be treated as automatic, and that failure to prepare would itself increase the risk of conflict.

A senior official summarised the approach bluntly: “This is about avoiding complacency, not frightening people.”

The rhetoric reflects planning assumptions rather than predictions.

The Money - Defence Spending With Real Numbers Attached

What makes this shift different from previous defence debates is that it is backed by specific, large‑scale financial commitments, not vague promises.

The government has announced what the Prime Minister described as “the biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the end of the Cold War.”

Key commitments include -

Raising UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, with an ambition to reach 3% in the following Parliament

This represents around £13-14 billion extra per year compared with mid‑2020s levels

An immediate £2.2 billion increase to the Ministry of Defence budget in 2025-26 as a down payment on the higher target

Ministers have explicitly linked these sums to changes in the nature of warfare, arguing that modern conflict requires sustained investment rather than short‑term surges.

One statement to Parliament noted that “the nature of warfare has changed significantly — and our armed forces must change with it.”

Not Just Weapons — Industrial Capacity

Perhaps the most striking development is that the government is not only spending more on defence equipment, but on the ability to manufacture weapons and ammunition inside the UK.

This reflects a lesson drawn directly from the war in Ukraine: stockpiles run down quickly in high‑intensity conflict, and countries without domestic production capacity become dependent on fragile international supply chains.

New Munitions and Explosives Factories

The Ministry of Defence has announced £1.5 billion specifically to build at least six new munitions and energetics factories across the UK.

These facilities will produce:

Ammunition

Explosives and propellants (known as energetics)

Components required to sustain long‑term military operations

Officials have described the goal as creating an “always‑on” production system — meaning factories continue operating in peacetime so they can rapidly scale up in a crisis.

According to ministerial statements:

At least 13 potential sites have been identified

Construction is expected to begin from 2026 onwards

The aim is to reduce reliance on overseas suppliers and ensure sovereign capability

As one defence secretary put it:

“A military is only as strong as the industry that stands behind it.”

A £6 Billion Munitions Programme

The new factories sit within a broader £6 billion munitions programme planned over the current Parliament.

This includes:

Factory construction

Upgrading existing production lines

Rebuilding depleted stockpiles

Long‑term contracts with UK defence manufacturers

Rather than placing one‑off emergency orders, the government is deliberately using multi‑year contracts to give industry confidence to invest in staff, machinery, and facilities.

Expanding Existing Production

Alongside new factories, the Ministry of Defence has placed large orders with existing UK manufacturers.

Contracts worth hundreds of millions of pounds have been signed to expand production of:

155mm artillery shells

Medium‑calibre ammunition

Small arms rounds

In some cases, existing contracts have been increased to values exceeding £400 million, specifically to add new machining lines and explosive‑filling capacity.

These are not theoretical investments as they involve physical buildings, equipment, and workforce expansion.

Why This Is Happening Now

Three factors are driving this combined rhetorical and financial shift.

1. Ukraine

Russia's invasion of Ukraine demonstrated that industrial capacity matters as much as advanced technology. High‑intensity warfare consumes ammunition at a scale Western militaries were no longer structured to support.

2. Fragile Supply Chains

Global supply chains — especially for explosives and specialist components — have proven vulnerable. Defence planners now treat domestic production as a strategic asset, not an economic inefficiency.

3. Deterrence

The underlying logic is deterrence. By demonstrating that the UK can sustain conflict rather than merely respond to it, ministers believe they reduce the likelihood of being tested in the first place.

The old maxim — “if you want peace, prepare for war” — has quietly returned to the centre of defence thinking.

Why This Feels So Different

For the public, what makes this moment unsettling is not any single announcement, but the combination

Stark language about war

Multi‑billion‑pound spending commitments

Physical construction of munitions factories

Explicit references to long‑term, high‑intensity conflict

Together, these signal a break from the post‑Cold War assumption that Britain would never again need to sustain a major war effort.

What It Means — and What It Doesn't

What it means

Defence will take a larger share of public spending

Industrial policy and national security are becoming tightly linked

Long‑term planning is replacing short‑term crisis response

What it does not mean

War is imminent

Civilian mobilisation is planned

Daily life is about to change

The emphasis is on preparation, not prediction.

Yes, politicians are talking more openly about war than at any time in a generation. But this is not a call to arms. It is a recalibration — driven by events abroad and lessons learned — about what the UK believes it must be capable of if deterrence fails.

The message, stripped of rhetoric, is simple and sobering -

Peace is no longer assumed. It must be insured — and insurance costs money, factories, and preparation.

Whether this strategy ultimately makes conflict less likely or merely normalises it is a debate that has only just begun.