Scotland, England, and the UK's Climate Journey: Progress, Challenges, and the Hidden Carbon Footprint

14th December 2025

In recent years, Scotland, England, and the broader UK have set ambitious targets to tackle climate change, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with national and international commitments.

These goals are backed by laws and statutory carbon budgets, designed to steadily reduce emissions over time and keep the country on track for net-zero emissions by 2050 (and 2045 for Scotland).

As we near the end of 2025, it is important to ask have these targets been met, and what further action is required? Moreover, are these reductions fully credible, or have some emissions simply been shifted elsewhere through global trade?

Progress in Reducing Emissions

The UK as a whole has made substantial progress in cutting emissions. According to the Climate Change Committee, total UK emissions have been reduced by just over 50% compared with 1990 levels, thanks largely to -

Decarbonisation of the electricity sector

Improved energy efficiency in homes and businesses

Reductions in industrial and waste emissions

The UK has successfully met its first three carbon budgets and is on track to overachieve the fourth, which covers the period up to 2027. This demonstrates that, over multi-year periods, the country has been steadily moving toward its legally binding climate goals.

In Scotland, progress has been even more pronounced. With a legally binding target of net zero by 2045, Scotland has reduced emissions by over 50% since 1990, driven primarily by:

Rapid expansion of renewable electricity (wind, hydro, and solar)

Reductions in industrial emissions

Strong waste management policies

These reductions have been among the largest in the UK, demonstrating that ambitious statutory targets can produce meaningful outcomes when coupled with clear policy and investment.

Shortfalls and Ongoing Challenges

Despite this progress, not all short-term targets have been fully achieved. Certain areas remain difficult to decarbonise:

Transport: Vehicle emissions remain stubbornly high, particularly in regions lacking strong public transport infrastructure.

Buildings and heating: Many homes and businesses still rely on fossil fuels for heating, making widespread adoption of low-carbon alternatives like heat pumps critical.

Agriculture and land use: Reducing emissions from livestock, fertilizer use, and land management continues to be challenging.

Imports and consumption: The carbon footprint associated with imported goods — emissions from products made abroad but consumed domestically — remains significant.

In Scotland, the Climate Change Committee has noted that previous ambitious targets, such as reducing emissions by 75% by 2030, may not be credible without a step-change in action across transport, heating, and land use sectors. This led to the establishment of five-year statutory carbon budgets for 2026-2030 and beyond, replacing older annual targets.

In England and the broader UK, while the overall trajectory toward net zero is intact, slow economic growth, energy consumption patterns, and reliance on fossil fuels in certain sectors mean that much more effort is needed to stay on track for long-term climate commitments.

The Carbon Outsourcing Problem

A key critique often raised is that the apparent progress in emissions reduction may be somewhat illusory. Much of the UK's manufacturing — including steel, cement, electronics, textiles, and other consumer goods — has been relocated to other countries, particularly China, India, and other emerging economies.

Points to watch

Official emissions accounting is territorial - Only emissions produced within the UK are counted. Carbon released during the production of imported goods is not included.

The environmental impact has effectively been outsourced: While UK emissions fall on paper, the same carbon is released elsewhere, meaning global atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ are unchanged.

Policy and ethical implications: Offshoring emissions transfers environmental harm to countries with weaker regulations, creating inequities and raising questions about the legitimacy of national carbon claims.

Experts refer to this as carbon leakage. From a global climate perspective, reductions in domestic emissions alone are insufficient. Consumption-based accounting, which includes emissions from imported goods, paints a more accurate picture of a country’s total climate impact. For the UK, considering these outsourced emissions could increase the country’s overall carbon footprint by 20–30% or more, depending on trade patterns.

Why More Action Is Needed

Even with substantial reductions, scientists and climate advisers agree that much more must be done to meet international targets like limiting global warming to 1.5°C:

Clean energy: Expanding renewable energy, improving grid infrastructure, and investing in storage solutions remain essential.

Transport transformation: Accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles, increasing public transport options, and redesigning urban mobility patterns are critical.

Building retrofits: Insulating homes and businesses, upgrading heating systems, and improving energy efficiency are long overdue.

Nature-based solutions: Restoring peatlands, planting trees, and protecting carbon-rich habitats are necessary complements to technological solutions.

Policy frameworks: Strong, consistent policies, including carbon pricing, regulations, and incentives, are essential to guide businesses and households toward low-carbon choices.

Behavioural change
Reduced energy consumption, sustainable diets, and lower waste generation all contribute to reducing emissions when adopted at scale.

Addressing the carbon outsourcing problem also requires international cooperation, supply chain transparency, and incentives for low-carbon production abroad to ensure that domestic consumption does not undermine the global climate effort.

Scotland and the UK have achieved meaningful progress toward their climate targets, with emissions significantly lower than in 1990 and statutory carbon budgets guiding long-term action. However, not all short-term goals have been fully met, and the hardest-to-abate sectors — transport, buildings, agriculture, and imported goods — remain significant challenges.

Moreover, the argument about outsourced emissions highlights a limitation of domestic carbon accounting. The UK’s success on paper may not fully reflect its global climate impact. For climate claims to be truly credible, both domestic and consumption-based emissions must be considered.

Looking forward, achieving net-zero and meeting international climate commitments will require far more action, including technological investment, policy enforcement, behavioural changes, and international coordination. Only by addressing both domestic and global emissions can the UK and Scotland claim to be genuinely reducing their contribution to climate change.

The fight against climate change is far from over. Progress has been made, but the hard work lies ahead, and a comprehensive, honest view of emissions — including the hidden impact of imports — is essential for creating policies that deliver real-world reductions, not just paper successes.