16th December 2025
The Scottish whisky industry has faced a period of reduced sales in recent years, much of it linked to tariffs and wider global economic pressures.
The key question is whether the sector can recover from these setbacks, and what the most recent figures suggest about its current health.
The evidence points to an industry that has been damaged in value terms but remains resilient and well placed for recovery if trade conditions improve.
Tariffs, particularly those imposed by the United States during the transatlantic trade dispute, had a significant impact on Scotch whisky exports. A 25 per cent tariff on single malt Scotch between 2019 and 2021 is estimated to have cost the industry hundreds of millions of pounds in lost sales. Although those tariffs were later suspended, the uncertainty they created disrupted supply chains, discouraged investment, and pushed up prices for consumers in one of Scotland's most important and lucrative markets. Even the threat of tariffs returning continues to weigh on long-term planning for distillers.
Despite this, recent export figures show that global demand for Scotch whisky remains strong. In 2024, exports were worth around £5.4 billion, slightly down on the previous year and below the peak reached in 2022, but still comfortably above pre-pandemic levels. More strikingly, the volume of whisky exported actually increased, with around 1.4 billion bottles shipped worldwide. This suggests that while consumers are still buying Scotch, they may be trading down to cheaper products or that sales growth is coming from lower-value markets. In other words, the problem is less about demand collapsing and more about pressure on prices and margins.
The United States remains the single most valuable export market for Scotch whisky, even though sales there have softened. At the same time, the industry has become more geographically diverse. India has now overtaken France as the largest market by volume, reflecting the growing middle class and rising appetite for Scotch in emerging economies. This diversification reduces reliance on any one market and helps cushion the impact of tariffs or economic downturns in traditional destinations such as the US or the EU.
Looking ahead, there are solid reasons to believe recovery is achievable. Ongoing trade negotiations, particularly between the UK and India, offer the prospect of reduced import duties that could significantly boost sales in one of the world's fastest-growing spirits markets. Continued suspension or permanent removal of US tariffs would also allow export values to recover, especially in the premium single malt segment where margins are highest. The long-term nature of whisky production, with spirit often laid down for decades, also reflects a level of confidence among producers that global demand will endure.
However, recovery is not guaranteed. If tariffs were reintroduced, especially in the US, the industry could again lose substantial value. Domestically, high excise duties and rising costs in the UK place additional strain on producers, particularly smaller distilleries. There is also evidence that premium whisky sales are under pressure globally as consumers become more cautious with discretionary spending, which could limit how quickly export values rebound even if volumes continue to grow.
Overall, the figures suggest that the Scottish whisky industry is resilient rather than in decline. Tariffs have clearly reduced export values and slowed growth, but they have not undermined the fundamental global demand for Scotch whisky. With expanding markets, strong brand recognition.
The possibility of improved trade terms, the industry has the capacity to recover lost ground. The pace and scale of that recovery will depend largely on future trade policy decisions and the wider global economic climate, rather than on any lack of demand for Scotland's most famous export.
Caithness
there are two main whisky production sites in Caithness around Wick and Thurso, each with its own history and current output:
Old Pulteney Distillery in Wick produces one of Scotland's most famous single malts. Established in 1826 and named after Sir William Pulteney, its location in Pulteneytown made it historically quite remote, with barley shipped in and whisky shipped out by sea.
Today it draws water from Loch Hempriggs and remains one of the northernmost distilleries on the Scottish mainland, producing a range of Old Pulteney Highland single malts that are widely exported and critically acclaimed for their maritime-influenced character. The distillery also has a visitor centre in Huddart Street and offers tours and tastings to visitors.
Wolfburn Distillery near Thurso represents the revival of historic whisky production in that town. The original Wolfburn was founded in 1821 by William Smith and, at its peak, became the largest distillery in Caithness at the time, producing significant volumes by early 19th-century standards.
Production ceased around the mid-1800s, and the site passed into ruin. In 2012-2013, a new distillery of the same name was built a short walk from the original location, using the Wolf Burn stream as its water source.
The modern Wolfburn is operational and produces Highland single malt whisky again, drawing on the historic name while using contemporary equipment.
It has a comparatively modest annual capacity (around 125,000 litres) but ships bottlings internationally and has built a reputation for quality since its first releases in the mid-2010s.
Both distilleries contribute to the whisky heritage and industry in Caithness, making the far north coast a notable — if geographically remote — part of Scotland’s whisky landscape. The region also has a wider distilling history, with several early small distilleries recorded in the 19th century near Wick, though most are long closed.