17th December 2025
Despite wholesale oil prices dropping with Brent crude recently falling below $60 a barrel pump prices in the UK haven't dropped much yet.
Retail prices are still high and have even risen recently in some months.
Retailers are under pressure to pass on savings from cheaper oil, but most of those savings have not been fully reflected at the forecourt yet.
Why haven’t petrol prices fallen quickly?
A few reasons
Lag effect: It can take weeks or even months for lower global oil prices to filter through to petrol station prices. Retailers buy fuel in advance and may still be selling older, more expensive stock before prices drop.
High retail margins: UK petrol retailers are currently adding higher mark-ups (margins) — meaning drivers don’t always benefit immediately when wholesale costs fall.
Seasonal demand & volatility: Fuel prices often rise in winter due to stronger demand and winter blend fuel requirements. Recent RAC data shows prices rose sharply in November 2025.
RAC Media Centre
So when are petrol prices likely to fall?
There’s no exact date retailers or forecasters can guarantee, but we can say:
Petrol prices should begin to fall modestly if global oil prices stay low and retailers pass on lower wholesale costs. Several analyses have suggested cuts of a few pence per litre are possible.
Forecasts in early/mid 2025 expected petrol could fall toward 130 pence per litre if oil stays around lower levels.
Medium-term (early 2026)
The UK government is keeping fuel duty frozen until March 2026, which helps keep petrol prices lower than they otherwise would be.
If Brent crude prices stay low through winter and into spring — and if retailers pass on savings — a more noticeable drop at the pumps could happen by early to mid 2026.
Oil prices are still volatile — geopolitical events, supply decisions by OPEC, or sudden shifts in global demand can quickly push prices up again. Recent news shows petrol and diesel sometimes rise even when wholesale oil costs fall.
Petrol prices may begin to fall modestly in the coming weeks if retailers pass on cheaper wholesale costs.
More substantial falls at the pump are more likely in early 2026 if global oil prices remain low and competitive pressures force retailers to cut prices.
Businesses and drivers should expect a lag between global price changes and what you pay at the station.