19th December 2025
The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data for November 2025 show that retail sales volumes fell by about 0.1% month‑on‑month, despite expectations of modest growth. Analysts had been forecasting around a 0.4% rise.
That drop came on the heels of a sharper 0.9% decline in October, according to revised ONS figures — meaning two consecutive months of weaker‑than‑expected monthly retail sales.
This suggests that consumer demand has been subdued in the run‑up to the holiday ‘golden quarter' — normally the busiest retail period of the year — with factors such as cautious spending ahead of the Budget and promotional timing affecting performance.
Quarterly Context: Still Positive Over Three Months
However, there’s an important nuance: the three‑month picture remains modestly positive. According to ONS, retail sales volumes were up about 0.6% in the three months to November compared to the three months to August.
That means while month‑to‑month numbers are weak or surprising on the downside, the broader trend over a quarter shows some underlying momentum — particularly in segments like clothing and household goods, though supermarkets and online categories struggled.
What Retailers Are Saying
Mixed signals from the market back up this picture:
Card Factory, a large high‑street retailer, recently issued a profit warning, warning that weak footfall and lower sales could significantly dent results in the crucial festive period — a sign that some big names are struggling with demand.
Commentary from analysts and industry surveys describes the recent sales data as "another grim reading on the health of the UK economy" — though it’s worth noting that this is partly a judgment on broader confidence, not just retail volumes.
What It Means — Grim or Just Below Expectations?
1. Monthly figures are disappointing: Two consecutive monthly drops and a miss relative to forecasts do point to weakness in consumer spending, especially in a season that retailers count on for strong revenue.
2. But the quarterly trend isn’t outright collapse: Over a three‑month period, retail volumes are still growing — albeit modestly — which suggests the worst‑case slump narrative may be too strong.
3. Consumers are cautious: Much of the weakness seems tied to timing effects (people delaying purchases for discounts) and uncertainty ahead of the Autumn Budget, which tends to make people tighten their belts — not a dramatic behavioural shift, but a noticeable one.
4. Some sub‑sectors are doing better than others: Non‑food segments (like clothing and electronics) show resilience in quarterly figures, even as supermarkets and online non‑store retailing lag.
Fashion Network
Bottom Line: Not a Free‑Fall, But Material Underperformance
Going by the latest data and commentary, the UK retail sector isn’t in a catastrophic slump — but it is underperforming relative to expectations and compared with seasonal norms. Monthly sales declines ahead of Christmas and weaker promotional boosts (like a muted Black Friday effect) are significant because this period normally drives strong growth.
So the most accurate summary is:
Retail sales are weaker than expected, not sharply rising
Recent monthly data show modest declines
Quarterly data still show some growth, avoiding outright collapse
It’s not “boom time” — consumer caution and economic uncertainty are clearly weighing on spending