20th December 2025
With the Scottish Parliament election scheduled for May 2026, opinion polls are beginning to give a clearer sense of the political landscape. They suggest a contest that is competitive, fragmented, and far less predictable than in previous elections.
SNP Still Ahead, But Well Below Past Highs
Most recent polling shows the Scottish National Party (SNP) remains the largest party in Scotland and is currently leading both the constituency and regional (list) votes. However, its support is significantly lower than at the 2021 Holyrood election, when the party won nearly half of the constituency vote.
On the list vote, the SNP is polling at around 28-29%, while constituency polling typically places it in the low-to-mid 30s. This would likely make the SNP the biggest party in the Scottish Parliament again — but not necessarily with an overall majority, even with potential Green support.
Labour Struggling to Break Through
Despite Labour's strong performance at the UK general election in 2024, Scottish Labour has so far struggled to translate that momentum into Holyrood polling success. Current surveys place Labour around 17-19% on the list vote, well behind the SNP.
This gap has raised questions about Labour's ability to position itself as the clear alternative government in Scotland, particularly as voters appear unconvinced that UK-wide gains automatically translate into devolved-level support.
Fragmentation and the Rise of Smaller Parties
One of the most striking features of recent polling is the fragmentation of the vote. Several smaller parties are polling at historically high levels:
Scottish Greens: roughly 16–18% on the list vote
Reform UK: also around 16–18%, marking a notable rise in support
Scottish Conservatives: polling lower, typically around 10–12%
Liberal Democrats: holding steady at 7–9%
This fragmentation increases the likelihood of a hung parliament, where cooperation or confidence-and-supply arrangements would again be required to govern.
What Voters Are Saying
Polling alongside voting intention suggests voters are concerned about:
NHS performance and waiting times
Cost-of-living pressures
Public service delivery
Trust and competence in government
While the SNP continues to benefit from being seen as the default governing party, voter satisfaction with the Scottish Government has softened, reflecting fatigue after nearly two decades in power.
What This Could Mean for May 2026
If current polling trends hold:
The SNP is likely to remain the largest party, but without a guaranteed majority
Labour faces an uphill battle to close the gap before polling day
Smaller parties — particularly the Greens — could once again hold the balance of power
Reform UK’s rise could disrupt traditional voting patterns, particularly on the list vote
However, with many months to go, party leadership debates, manifesto commitments, and unforeseen events could still reshape the race.
At this stage, the polls point to continuity rather than dramatic change — but with less certainty than in previous elections. The SNP remains ahead, Labour is under pressure to improve its standing, and a growing number of voters are turning to smaller parties. As May 2026 approaches, the key question is not just who will win — but who will be able to govern effectively in an increasingly divided parliament.