20th December 2025
At first glance, the opinion polls ahead of the May 2026 Scottish Parliament election appear to tell a familiar story. The SNP remains the largest party, pro-independence parties collectively retain significant support, and Scotland continues to vote differently from the rest of the UK.
But beneath the surface, the polling points to something more complex and potentially more challenging for the independence movement.
Independence Still Matters, But It No Longer Dominates
Support for independence has not collapsed. Polling over the past year consistently shows the electorate broadly split, with independence support hovering around the mid-40s to high-40s, occasionally touching 50% but rarely breaking decisively above it. This suggests that the constitutional question remains central to Scottish politics — but it is no longer the defining issue for many voters.
Instead, voters increasingly prioritise bread-and-butter concerns such as the NHS, cost-of-living pressures, housing and public services. For a movement that once thrived on a sense of momentum and inevitability, this shift is significant. Independence remains important, but it competes for attention in a crowded political landscape.
The SNP's Position: Dominant, Yet Constrained
The SNP’s continued lead in the polls reinforces its status as the primary vehicle for independence. However, its reduced vote share compared with 2021 points to a deeper problem: electoral dominance is no longer translating into a clear mandate.
Without a majority — and with independence-supporting parties unlikely to command an overwhelming share of the vote — the SNP faces a familiar dilemma. It can still claim democratic legitimacy, but it struggles to argue convincingly that Scotland has issued a fresh, unambiguous instruction to hold another referendum. Westminster’s resistance to authorising one remains politically sustainable as long as the result looks ambiguous rather than decisive.
Fragmentation Weakens the Case for Urgency
The rise of smaller parties complicates independence politics further. While the Greens remain strongly pro-independence, their support is tied as much to climate and social justice issues as to constitutional change. Meanwhile, the emergence of Reform UK and the decline of the Conservatives fragment the unionist vote — but do not automatically strengthen the independence cause.
This fragmentation means elections are increasingly about who governs, not what Scotland’s constitutional future should be. A parliament elected on divided priorities makes it harder for any single narrative — including independence — to dominate.
Labour’s Dilemma and the Unionist Reset
Scottish Labour’s weak polling creates a paradox. On one hand, Labour’s inability to seriously challenge the SNP at Holyrood removes pressure on the independence movement from a traditional unionist force. On the other, Labour’s UK-wide victory in 2024 has changed the political context.
For voters who want change without constitutional upheaval, a Labour government at Westminster offers a plausible alternative to independence. That does not convert voters into committed unionists, but it does dampen urgency. Independence thrives on dissatisfaction with the UK status quo; when that status quo appears more flexible or responsive, momentum slows.
A Strategic Pause or a Strategic Rethink?
The polls suggest independence politics may be entering a holding phase rather than advancing or retreating. The question for the SNP and wider movement is whether to continue framing every election as a de facto referendum — a strategy that appears increasingly less persuasive — or to rethink how independence is argued.
If independence is to regain momentum, it may need:
A clearer economic narrative
Greater separation between day-to-day governance and constitutional campaigning
A broader coalition beyond traditional SNP and Green voters
Without this, the movement risks becoming trapped in a cycle of electoral wins that do not advance the constitutional cause.
Conclusion: Enduring, But Stalled
The current polling does not signal the end of Scottish independence — far from it. But it does suggest that the movement has stalled rather than surged. Independence remains a powerful idea, but it is no longer riding a wave of inevitability.
As the 2026 election approaches, the defining question may not be whether Scotland wants independence in principle, but whether voters believe it is urgent, achievable, and worth prioritising over the pressing challenges of everyday life. Until that question is answered more decisively, independence politics is likely to remain influential — but unresolved.