Caithness and the Global Fertility Decline - How a Remote Scottish County Reflects Worldwide Demographic Change

17th January 2026

Across the world, fertility rates are falling and populations are ageing. What was once seen as a problem limited to a handful of wealthy nations has now become a global demographic shift, affecting countries as diverse as Japan, China, Italy, the United States, and increasingly the United Kingdom.

Nowhere are these trends more starkly visible than at the local level. In Scotland, and particularly in Caithness, global population dynamics play out in a concentrated and highly visible form.

Global and national context
Globally, the average fertility rate has fallen to just over two children per woman, close to the level required to maintain population size. In most high-income countries, fertility has dropped well below replacement. Japan and Italy now average close to 1.2 births per woman, China is around 1.0, and much of Europe sits between 1.3 and 1.6. These low rates result in ageing populations and, without immigration, eventual population decline.

Scotland follows this same pattern. Its total fertility rate fell to around 1.25 in 2024, the lowest since records began. Births have been below deaths for more than a decade, meaning Scotland experiences a natural population decrease. Despite this, Scotland's total population has continued to grow slightly due to inward migration, which now plays a crucial role in sustaining population size and the workforce.

Caithness - demographics at the sharp end[b]

Caithness, located in the far north of mainland Scotland, illustrates these demographic pressures more intensely than most places. With a population of roughly 24,000, the county has a distinctly older age profile than the Scottish average. A higher proportion of residents are over 65, while the number of children and young adults has steadily declined.

Birth numbers in Caithness are extremely low. Only a small number of babies are born locally each year, with figures often in the tens rather than hundreds. Over recent years, births recorded at Caithness General Hospital have averaged fewer than twenty annually, and many local women now give birth elsewhere due to service centralisation. While fertility rates are not officially calculated at such a small geographic scale, the consistently low number of births relative to population size strongly indicates fertility well below replacement level.

At the same time, deaths outnumber births by a wide margin, resulting in a persistent negative natural change. Unlike Scotland as a whole, Caithness does not benefit from significant international migration to offset this loss. As a result, population projections suggest long-term decline unless patterns of migration or fertility change substantially.

[b]Migration and the rural challenge

Migration is the key factor separating Caithness from national and global averages. While countries such as the United States or regions like central Scotland can rely on inward migration to counterbalance low fertility, rural and remote areas struggle to attract and retain younger working-age people. In Caithness, out-migration of young adults for education and employment further accelerates population ageing and reduces the number of potential parents, creating a self-reinforcing demographic cycle.

This pattern mirrors rural regions across Europe and East Asia, where population decline is often faster and more severe outside major cities. What makes Caithness notable is how clearly it demonstrates the local consequences of global demographic trends: school rolls shrinking, pressure on healthcare and social care services, and concerns over long-term economic sustainability.

Caithness in the global picture

Although Caithness is small in population, its demographic story aligns closely with that of many developed regions worldwide. Very low fertility, an ageing population, more deaths than births, and reliance on migration are now common features across high-income societies. The difference is scale: in Caithness, these trends are more visible and more immediately felt.

In contrast, much of Sub-Saharan Africa continues to experience high fertility and rapid population growth, which will drive most global population increase in the coming decades. However, even there, fertility rates are beginning to fall, suggesting that the challenges faced by places like Caithness today may become more widespread in the future.

Caithness offers a clear window into the future facing many parts of the developed world. Its demographic challenges are not unique, but they are concentrated: very low birth numbers, sustained natural population decline, limited inward migration, and a rapidly ageing population.

While Scotland as a whole can still offset these trends through migration, Caithness shows what happens when that buffer is weak or absent.

Understanding Caithness is therefore not just about one Scottish county. It is about recognising how global fertility decline translates into local realities—and how demographic change, once abstract, becomes deeply personal and community-shaping at the local level.

Comment
Clearly something drastic needs to be done and the ongoing issue of maternity and health services does not help individuals, couples and businesses thinking of locating in the north. The drift to lower number of births and more older people looks set to continue if there is not significant investment.