1st March 2026
Petrol prices typically lag crude oil by one to three weeks, but crises like this compress that timeline. Analysts and motoring groups are already warning drivers to expect record pump prices within 10-12 days, as the turmoil in the Middle East disrupts global oil distribution.
The reason is simple in that the Strait of Hormuz carries around 20% of the world's total oil supply, and the conflict has erupted directly around this chokepoint.
With reports that the strait has been closed to shipping and vessels receiving radio warnings to stay clear, markets are preparing for a steep rise in crude when trading reopens.
Petrol prices set to jump within days
UK drivers are being warned that petrol prices could hit record levels within 10-12 days, according to the AA's president Edmund King. He says the "turmoil and bombing across the Middle East" will inevitably disrupt global oil distribution and push up pump prices.
This aligns with broader market expectations: oil prices are forecast to surge when futures trading opens, with shipping lanes through Hormuz compromised and crude, fuel, and LNG shipments suspended.
Why this spike is different
Several factors make this crisis uniquely dangerous for global fuel markets:
Direct US-Iran confrontation has escalated beyond proxy conflict.
Shipping suspensions by oil majors and LNG carriers signal real supply disruption, not just market nerves.
Hormuz is irreplaceable: it is the world's most vital oil export route, linking Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and the UAE to global markets.
Tanker behaviour shows the fear—vessels are staying put for days, waiting for clarity.
Even before this escalation, experts warned that any direct military action involving the US and Iran—or a blockade of Hormuz—could send petrol prices sharply higher.
How high could prices go?
Analysts have been blunt:
Brent crude could rise to $80 per barrel if supply is disrupted.
A prolonged closure of Hormuz could push crude past $110, ending the recent downtick in UK petrol prices.
In a worst‑case scenario, UK petrol could exceed £2 per litre, according to JPMorgan’s modelling.
Even without a full closure, the current halt in shipments is enough to push UK pump prices higher over the next two weeks.
What UK drivers should expect next
Petrol prices in the UK typically lag crude by one to three weeks, but crises like this compress the timeline. With shipping frozen, futures rising, and risk premiums soaring, the climb at the pump is imminent.
Expect noticeable increases within 7–12 days.
Prices will continue rising through March if tanker traffic remains disrupted.
A prolonged conflict could push fuel costs toward historic highs.
The situation is still unfolding, and the next major indicator will be how markets react when trading resumes. Would you like a version of this article tailored specifically for readers in Aberdeen, focusing on local economic impacts?