1st March 2026
Drivers almost always rush to fill up when they believe a fuel shortage or a major price spike is coming. The UK has some of the clearest evidence anywhere that this behaviour is both predictable and self‑reinforcing.
Why drivers rush to fill up
The pattern is consistent across multiple crises: when people think fuel might run out or become unaffordable, they buy more than usual. This isn't speculation — it’s documented in official data and past national events.
2021 UK fuel supply crisis
A leaked briefing about HGV driver shortages triggered nationwide panic buying even though there was no actual fuel shortage.
BP reported that 30% of its stations ran out of main fuel grades.
In some regions, 50-90% of stations ran dry at the peak.
Queues stretched for hours, and London/South East were hit hardest.
This crisis was caused largely by public behaviour, not supply failure.
ONS evidence of panic buying during price shocks
The Office for National Statistics found that during moments of geopolitical tension or supply fear, drivers increase fuel purchases per transaction:
During the week of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, drivers bought 6% more fuel per transaction than the previous year — a clear sign of anticipatory stockpiling.
During the September 2021 driver‑shortage crisis, purchases jumped 7% above normal, again showing short‑term stockpiling.
These spikes happened before any real shortage materialised.
Government analysis of panic‑buying behaviour
A UK Government Office for Science review found that "adaptive purchasing behaviours" — essentially panic buying — are triggered by:
media reports,
images of empty shelves or queues,
distrust in authorities,
uncertainty about how a crisis will unfold.
Fuel is especially vulnerable because it meets a basic need: people fear being unable to get to work, pick up children, or handle emergencies.
What this means for the current oil crisis
Given the evidence from 2000, 2021, and the Ukraine invasion, it is highly likely UK drivers will rush to fill up if they believe:
the Strait of Hormuz disruption will worsen,
petrol prices will spike sharply, or
supplies might be interrupted.
Once queues form, they amplify the fear — creating a self‑fulfilling cycle where stations run dry because people panic, not because supply has failed.
The feedback loop that makes shortages worse
Panic buying creates its own crisis:
Drivers buy more fuel than usual.
Stations run out faster than they can be resupplied.
News reports show empty pumps.
More people rush to fill up.
The cycle repeats.
This is exactly what happened in 2021, and the same behavioural triggers are present now.