3rd March 2026
Domestic energy prices in the UK will not be immediately affected for most households because the current price cap is fixed until 31 March 2026.
Furthermore, Ofgem has already confirmed a 7% decrease in the price cap for the subsequent period of 1 April to 30 June 2026.
The impact of the current conflict-driven wholesale price spikes is most likely to be felt starting in July 2026.
Timeline of Impact
Now - 31 March 2026: No change for those on standard variable tariffs (SVTs). The average annual bill remains at £1,758.
1 April - 30 June 2026
Bills are confirmed to fall by £117 to an average of £1,641 per year. This drop is protected because the rates were set before the recent surge in wholesale costs.
1 July 2026 Onwards
This is the earliest the price cap can rise in response to the current war. Ofgem will announce the July-September rates on 27 May 2026. If wholesale gas and oil prices remain at their current elevated levels for the next three months, analysts warn the typical household bill could surge back to £2,500 or higher by late 2026.
Exceptions to the Delay
While most households are shielded by the price cap, some may see a faster impact.
Heating Oil
Rural households that rely on heating oil are seeing an immediate impact, with prices already hitting a 12-month high and up 30% year-on-year as of 2 March 2026.
New Fixed Deals
If you are currently looking to switch to a new fixed-rate tariff, you may find that the "cheap" deals previously available have been withdrawn as suppliers adjust to the new market volatility.
Petrol and Diese
Unlike domestic energy, fuel at the pumps responds quickly. Prices are expected to rise by 2p to 3p per litre as early as this week.