6th March 2026
Travel insurance premiums are likely to rise because the Middle East conflict has increased global risk levels, disrupted shipping and aviation routes, and pushed insurers to reprice policies to reflect higher exposure. The shift is already visible across several parts of the insurance market, and the same pressures that are raising business and logistics insurance costs will spill over into consumer travel insurance.
Why the conflict pushes travel insurance prices up
The conflict involving Iran, the US, Israel, and Gulf states has created a sharp rise in geopolitical risk. Insurers are already warning that instability in the region is affecting aviation, shipping, and energy markets, and that these events are being closely monitored for their impact on risk and pricing.
Several mechanisms drive premiums higher:
Higher aviation risk: Drone and missile activity across parts of the Gulf increases the risk profile for airlines and passengers.
Shipping and supply chain disruption: Major maritime carriers have suspended bookings into the Persian Gulf due to attacks on vessels, and wartime insurance provisions and higher premiums are emerging.
Global repricing of risk: Analysts note that the Iran conflict is already repricing energy, shipping, insurance, aviation, and financial risk worldwide.
Higher logistics and transport insurance costs: Exporters warn that tensions are raising logistics and insurance costs, which often flow through to consumer-facing sectors, including travel.
These pressures make it more expensive for insurers to cover travellers, airlines, and tour operators, and those costs tend to be passed on to customers.
How this affects travel insurance specifically
Travel insurance premiums are influenced by:
War and terrorism risk
Flight disruption likelihood
Medical evacuation costs
Airline insolvency risk
Higher operational costs for airlines and travel providers
When geopolitical instability rises, insurers typically respond by:
Increasing base premiums
Adding regional surcharges
Excluding certain destinations
Raising excesses for claims related to disruption
Given the scale of the current conflict and its impact on global transport networks, insurers are likely to adjust pricing upward across most policies, even for travellers not going near the Middle East.
How much premiums could rise
Insurers have not yet published exact consumer‑level increases, but based on past conflicts and current market signals:
Single‑trip policies may rise by 5-15%
Annual multi‑trip policies may rise by 10–20%
Policies covering long‑haul or high‑risk regions could see even larger increases
The exact rise will depend on how long the conflict continues and whether attacks on shipping and aviation escalate.
What to watch next
Premiums will rise fastest if:
The Strait of Hormuz remains unsafe
Airlines face prolonged rerouting and higher fuel costs
Insurers begin adding explicit "war risk" surcharges
More attacks occur on commercial vessels or aviation assets
If the conflict stabilises, increases may level off, but current indicators point toward continued upward pressure.