9th March 2026
Iran has hit the gulf states once again forcing reductions and closures in production.
In early trading today in Asia the price of oil had been heading towards $120 per barrel but slid back briefly but prices have not settled yet.
As at 5.50am the markets have not opened in UK but expectations are for a surge in prices.
Following this it is expected there will be rise in prices for petrol, diesel and home heating oil.
Even as this article is being written the price has eased to $109 but in this fluid situation it is not possible to say where the prices will land.
oil did spike above $116 per barrel in Asian trading today, and it even briefly touched about $119.50 before pulling back slightly.
Right now the Brent crude benchmark (the one used for UK prices) is roughly around $115-$116 per barrel, after jumping more than 20-25% in a single move.
If oil stays above $110, UK petrol and home‑heating costs would almost certainly rise further, but the exact scale depends on how long prices remain elevated and how retailers pass through costs. Current data shows both petrol and heating oil already climbing sharply alongside crude benchmarks.
Petrol Prices: What a Sustained $110+ Oil Price Could Mean
Brent crude recently traded around $115.35, up 24.45% in a short period.
Petrol prices tend to follow crude with a lag of 1-3 weeks.
A rule of thumb used by analysts: every $10 rise in crude adds roughly 5-6 pence per litre to UK pump prices (not a fixed law, but historically consistent).
Estimated Petrol Price Impact
If oil stabilises at $110-115 (roughly $20–25 above earlier baselines):
Expected increase: 10–15 pence per litre at the pump.
This would push average UK petrol prices toward or above recent highs, depending on retailer margins and tax components.
Home Heating Oil: How Much Could Prices Rise?
Heating oil reacts even more directly to crude markets.
Home Heating Oil: How Much Could Prices Rise?
Heating oil reacts even more directly to crude markets.
Current UK Heating Oil Price Snapshot
Average UK heating oil price: 131.82 pence per litre for a 1,000‑litre order.
Heating oil futures recently jumped 18.83%, reflecting tight supply.
Households have already seen £100 spikes in a single week due to volatility.
Estimated Heating Oil Impact
If crude remains above $110:
Heating oil could rise another 10–20%, depending on supply constraints.
That would push prices from 131.82 ppl to roughly 145–160 ppl.
For a typical 1,000‑litre fill, that's an extra £130–£280.
Petrol: Likely +10–15p per litre if oil stays above $110.
Heating oil: Likely +10–20%, adding £130–£280 per 1,000 litres.
The longer crude remains elevated, the more these increases solidify into retail prices.