12th March 2026
The Middle East War is already pushing oil and energy prices higher, and that means UK inflation pressure will rise again.
But this is not normal inflation. It is not caused by excessive demand in the UK economy. It is an external supply shock.
So the real question is simple: will the government protect households, or leave them to absorb the shock?
In this video, I explain why raising interest rates will not solve an oil shock, and why the government should instead:
Cut VAT
Cut fuel duty
Stabilise long-term interest rates
Protect household incomes
If ministers talk about economic defence in wartime, then protecting society must come first.