12th March 2026
Oil prices jumped sharply today (12 March 2026) and briefly went above $100 per barrel for the global benchmark Brent crude.
The main reason is escalating conflict in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, Israel, and U.S. forces. Attacks on oil infrastructure and shipping routes have raised fears of a major supply disruption.
A critical factor is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea passage through which about 20% of the world's oil supply normally passes. Disruptions or attacks there immediately push global oil prices higher.
Other factors pushing prices up today:
Attacks on tankers and shipping in the Gulf
Oil facilities and storage sites hit in the region
Fears exports could be restricted or blocked
Markets expecting supply shortages
Because of this, oil has risen more than 35% since the war escalated in late February.
Are petrol / gasoline prices likely to rise?
Very likely, yes.
When crude oil rises, fuel prices (petrol, diesel, gasoline) usually follow with a delay of a few days to weeks because:
Refineries buy crude at higher prices
Transport and wholesale costs increase
Retail stations adjust prices afterwards
In Europe and the UK, analysts estimate drivers could pay around £140 more per year on fuel if oil stays near $100.
What about natural gas prices?
Gas prices can also rise because:
Some gas shipments also move through the same Middle East routes.
Energy markets are linked — if oil surges, demand shifts to gas or vice-versa.
Supply disruptions in the region have already caused spikes in European gas markets earlier in the crisis.
So gas and electricity costs could increase if the conflict continues.
Could oil go even higher?
Possible scenarios analysts are discussing:
If the conflict escalates
Oil could stay $100+ or spike much higher
Some officials have warned prices could theoretically reach $150-$200 in a worst case supply shock.
If tensions ease
Prices may fall back toward $70–$80 later in the year.
Oil jumped today mainly due to war-related supply risks in the Middle East.
Petrol/gasoline prices are likely to rise if oil stays high.
Natural gas and energy bills could also increase, depending on how long the disruption lasts.