12th March 2026
First the Press Release.
Protecting families from heating oil profiteering is top of the Prime Minister's agenda as he visits Belfast
As global events continue to impact the daily lives of communities across the UK, the Prime Minister is visiting Belfast today (Thursday 12 March) to highlight his relentless focus on cutting the cost of living for working people.
On a visit to Belfast, the Prime Minister will set out his commitment to protecting working people from unfair heating oil practices or profiteering.
He will meet the First Minister, deputy First Minister and leaders of the five main NI political parties to discuss what UK Government is doing to make people better off in Northern Ireland.
Through a record Spending Review settlement, Northern Ireland is already benefiting from government action to cut the cost of living and create the conditions for growth.
As global events continue to impact the daily lives of communities across the UK, the Prime Minister is visiting Belfast today (Thursday 12 March) to highlight his relentless focus on cutting the cost of living for working people.
Recognising that the majority of households in Northern Ireland rely on heating oil to heat their homes, the Prime Minister will send the strong message to companies that prices must be fair, transparent and justifiable, not inflated at the expense of working people. If companies hike prices without justification, the government will act, including through regulation.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said:
Global instability has real impacts on the lives of working people across the UK, and I know families in Northern Ireland are worried about what the war in the Middle East could mean for their finances - especially given so many households rely on heating oil to heat their homes.
Let me be clear: we will not tolerate profiteering or unfair practices. If companies fleece customers or rip them off, we will not hesitate to step in, and that includes on regulation.
And this looks like diversion from other current Problems. Some may argue otherwise but lets look closely
Based on current reporting, the Prime Minister's comments about "profiteering" or "price gouging" by heating‑oil suppliers are not the main explanation for high heating‑oil prices. The dominant cause is the Middle East conflict, especially the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed global crude oil above $100 a barrel and driven up UK heating‑oil prices. The PM's warnings about profiteering appear to be a political response to public anger, not the core economic driver.
From the far north perspective we have a local oil company Simpsons who have always been competitively pricing their heating oil and they are in the same position as suppliers having to deal with the wholesale cost they have to pay.
What's actually driving heating‑oil prices up?
Middle East conflict → global oil shock
Multiple reputable sources confirm that the Iran war / Middle East crisis is the primary cause of rising oil prices:
Oil has surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil route, is disrupted — this directly increases wholesale prices.
UK ministers acknowledge that the conflict is causing "months of upward pressure on inflation" and will hit households.
This is the same pattern we saw during the Ukraine war: global supply shocks → higher crude prices → higher heating‑oil prices in rural UK.
The war is the main driver, not domestic suppliers.
So why is the Prime Minister talking about "profiteering"?
Keir Starmer has publicly warned heating‑oil suppliers not to exploit the crisis.
He said he “will not tolerate” suppliers profiteering from the Middle East war.
He repeated this message during a visit to Northern Ireland, emphasising the need for fair and justifiable pricing.
This is a political move for two reasons
A. To reassure rural households
1.5 million UK homes rely on heating oil — many in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and rural England. When prices spike, governments face pressure to “do something.”
B. To shift some blame away from government
By raising the issue of “profiteering,” the PM signals that he is protecting consumers, even though the core price pressure is global, not domestic.
C. To prepare the ground for intervention
The Treasury is already exploring support packages for heating‑oil users.
Is “price gouging” actually happening?
There is no evidence in the reporting that UK heating‑oil suppliers are artificially inflating prices beyond the global wholesale increases.
What the data does show:
Prices are rising in line with crude oil.
The increases began immediately after the Iran conflict escalated.
Government ministers themselves link the price surge to the Middle East war, not domestic behaviour.
So while the PM is warning suppliers, the available evidence suggests the price rises are market‑driven, not a conspiracy or coordinated gouging.
So is the PM's message a “diversion”?
It’s partly political positioning.
The government wants to show it is standing up for consumers, but the real cause of high heating‑oil prices is the global conflict, not domestic profiteering.
Main cause: Middle East war → global oil spike → UK heating‑oil surge
Political message: “We won’t tolerate profiteering”
Reality: No evidence of widespread gouging; prices track global markets
This doesn’t mean no supplier ever takes advantage — but the primary driver is the war.
This matters especially in the Highlands because
Rural homes rely heavily on heating oil
Delivery distances increase costs
Prices move faster than gas or electricity
Households feel the impact immediately
So the PM’s comments may sound like a diversion, because the real pressure is geopolitical, not local. Everyone will have their own thoughts but none of this will bring the prices down.