20th March 2026
The last day has seen coordinated or near‑simultaneous attacks on major refineries in Kuwait, Israel, and across the Gulf region. These are not symbolic targets. They are core nodes in global energy infrastructure.
Kuwait's Mina al‑Ahmadi refinery (730,000 barrels/day) was hit by Iranian drones, causing fires across multiple units .
Israel’s Haifa refinery was struck by Iranian missiles, causing power outages and operational disruption .
Explosions were also reported in Dubai and Tehran, indicating a wider regional escalation with energy sites explicitly targeted .
This is the most serious direct pressure on refining capacity in years.
What this means for oil prices now
These are refinery attacks, not crude production hits — but markets don’t care.
Even though the attacks hit refining capacity rather than upstream production, markets price risk, not just barrels.
When multiple refineries are burning, traders assume:
supply chains may be disrupted
shipping lanes may be threatened
retaliation could hit production next
insurance premiums will rise
OPEC+ may tighten further
This is exactly the kind of environment where crude can overshoot fundamentals.
The probability of Brent breaking $120 has increased materially
Before the attacks, $120 was the upper edge of the technical range.
After the attacks, the market is now facing:
real physical damage
ongoing drone activity
multi‑site targeting
no sign of de‑escalation
This is the kind of cluster of events that historically pushes oil into a risk‑premium spike.
A move to $120+ is now credible, not speculative.
The key variable is whether Iran or Israel escalates to production sites.
Right now, the attacks are on:
refineries
gas fields
energy infrastructure
If either side hits:
export terminals
offshore platforms
pipelines
tankers in the Gulf
...then $120 becomes conservative.
You could see $130-$150 in a true supply shock.
What this means for rural Scotland
For Caithness, the Highlands, and other rural areas:
Fuel prices will rise faster than the UK average, because transport costs amplify global spikes.
Heating oil will follow crude upward, often with a lag of only days.
Small businesses with thin margins (hauliers, trades, agriculture) will feel the squeeze immediately.
Households already stretched by winter bills will see renewed pressure.
This is exactly the kind of global event that exposes the fragility of rural energy dependence.
after the refinery attacks, oil breaking $120 is now a realistic scenario.
It’s not guaranteed, but the probability has jumped sharply because the market is now pricing active, ongoing, physical risk to energy infrastructure.