4th April 2026
The energy crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Middle East conflict is hitting Southeast Asia harder than almost anywhere else and the Philippines is the clearest example of how quickly things can unravel when a country depends almost entirely on Gulf oil.
The Philippines has already declared a national energy emergency, with fuel prices more than doubling and public transport grinding to a halt. Jeepneys are the backbone of Manila's transport system and are being parked up because drivers simply cannot afford diesel, which has jumped from 55 pesos to 130 pesos per litre. Streets that were once gridlocked are now eerily quiet as motorists abandon their cars and crowd into overstretched buses. The country’s vulnerability is stark: almost all of its oil comes from the Persian Gulf, and the government is scrambling to secure alternative suppliers while enforcing conservation measures.
Indonesia, though an oil producer, is not escaping the shock. It still relies on imports for more than a third of its crude, and the region-wide supply crunch has exposed how thin its energy buffers really are. Governments across Southeast Asia are taking emergency steps to slow consumption before shortages become unmanageable. Offices in the Philippines have shifted to a four‑day work week, while Thailand and Vietnam are urging civil servants to work from home and limit travel.
Myanmar has even introduced alternating driving days to keep fuel demand down. These measures are less about solving the crisis and more about buying time while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
The deeper problem is structural.
Southeast Asia is overwhelmingly dependent on imported oil and gas, and much of it flows through the very chokepoint now disrupted. In 2024, more than 84% of crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz was destined for Asia, and countries like the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia rely on imports for 60-95% of their crude supply.
Even Indonesia, with its own reserves, cannot insulate itself from global price spikes. Economists warn that the region’s limited strategic reserves and fragile fiscal capacity make it especially vulnerable to prolonged disruption. The poorest nations such as Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Timor‑Leste are expected to fare worst.
As the crisis deepens, countries are scrambling for alternatives. Some are turning to Russian fuel oil, now flowing into Asia at record levels after sanctions were eased to stabilise global markets. Others are firing up coal‑powered plants to conserve scarce LNG supplies, especially as shipments from Qatar and other Gulf states remain constrained. Vietnam is negotiating new coal contracts, while the Philippines and Indonesia are exploring Russian imports to keep their grids running. These are stopgap measures, not long‑term solutions, but they highlight how few options exist when a region’s energy security depends on a single vulnerable shipping lane.
The crisis has now reached the point where governments are invoking emergency powers. The Philippines’ declaration allows it to control fuel prices, fast‑track imports, and ration supply if necessary.
South Korea has launched a nationwide energy‑saving campaign, Japan is preparing to release oil from its emergency reserves, and Thailand and Vietnam are urging citizens to cut consumption. The International Energy Agency has warned that this oil shock is now worse than the combined crises of the 1970s and is a "major, major threat" to the global economy, with no country immune if the situation continues.