13th April 2026
The announcement by Donald Trump of a blockade targeting Iranian oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz has sent an immediate shock through global energy markets. Within hours, crude oil prices surged back above $100 per barrel, reflecting deep concern about the stability of one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints.
Roughly a fifth of global oil supply passes through this narrow corridor, making it one of the most strategically sensitive locations in the global economy. Even a partial disruption—such as shipping delays, tanker rerouting, or heightened military tension—can trigger sharp price increases. That is exactly what markets are reacting to now: not just current supply losses, but the risk of escalation and future shortages.
Why Oil Prices Are Rising
Oil markets are highly sensitive to geopolitical risk, and the Strait of Hormuz sits at the heart of that vulnerability. The blockade, although aimed at Iran, introduces broader uncertainty:
Tankers may avoid the region altogether
Insurance and shipping costs rise
Traders anticipate possible retaliation or conflict
This creates a "risk premium," pushing oil prices higher even before any physical shortage fully materializes.
Impact on UK Petrol and Diesel Prices
In the UK, fuel prices are closely tied to global crude oil benchmarks, particularly Brent crude. However, the effect at the pump is not immediate—it typically unfolds over days to a few weeks.
If oil remains around or above $100:
Petrol could rise by 5-10p per litre
Diesel could rise by 5-12p per litre
Diesel is often more sensitive because of refining constraints and higher global demand.
Worst-case scenario (if disruption escalates)
If the Strait of Hormuz is significantly blocked or conflict spreads:
Petrol could climb toward £1.90 per litre n some areas.
Diesel could exceed £2.10 per litre
In reality it is anyone's guess where prices will go in such volatile conditions.
In one report motorway station were already showing record prices and remote and island prices even higher.
This would echo or even surpass the price spikes seen during earlier global crises.
Why UK Drivers Feel It Quickly
Even though the UK produces some oil, it still relies on global markets. Prices at the pump reflect:
International crude oil prices
Refining costs
Distribution and retail margins
Taxes (which make up a large portion of UK fuel prices)
Because crude oil is the largest variable component, sharp increases like this tend to feed through relatively quickly.
Broader Economic Effects
Higher fuel prices don't just affect drivers—they ripple across the economy:
Transport and delivery costs increase
Food prices may rise due to higher logistics costs
Inflation can be pushed upward again
This puts pressure on households and complicates policy decisions for institutions like the Bank of England, which must balance inflation control with economic growth.
The blockade has already pushed oil prices sharply higher due to fear of supply disruption at a global chokepoint. For UK consumers, this is likely to translate into noticeable increases in petrol and diesel prices within weeks. The scale of the impact will depend almost entirely on how the situation around the Strait of Hormuz develops.