16th April 2026
In recent weeks, reports of potential shortages of everyday items such as chicken and pork have begun to surface in discussions around UK government contingency planning. At first glance, the idea may seem surprising.
The UK is not short of farms, nor is there any immediate indication of a collapse in livestock production. Yet the concern is real—and it reveals a deeper vulnerability within the modern food system.
The issue is not one of agricultural output, but of industrial dependency. Chicken and pork, two of the most widely consumed meats in the UK, rely heavily on tightly coordinated processing, packaging, and distribution systems. At the centre of this system lies an often-overlooked component: carbon dioxide (CO₂).
CO₂ plays a critical role in the food supply chain. It is used in the humane stunning of animals before slaughter, in extending the shelf life of packaged meat, and in refrigeration processes. Without a steady supply of CO₂, the machinery of meat production begins to slow—and in some cases, can stop altogether. This is why chicken and pork are among the first products flagged in risk scenarios: they are high-volume, fast-moving goods that depend on continuous industrial throughput.
The connection to the Iran conflict lies several steps upstream. Much of the UK's CO₂ supply is generated as a by-product of fertiliser production, which in turn depends heavily on natural gas. Disruptions to global energy markets—exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and instability affecting key transit routes—have placed pressure on gas supplies and driven up prices. As fertiliser plants reduce output or temporarily shut down, CO₂ production falls with them. What begins as an energy issue quickly becomes a food supply concern.
At the same time, the conflict is affecting the cost and reliability of global transport. Shipping routes have become more volatile, particularly around critical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. Higher oil prices feed directly into increased costs for road haulage, refrigeration, and distribution. For a food system that depends on just-in-time logistics, even small disruptions can ripple quickly through supply chains.
These pressures do not stop at meat. A range of other goods could face similar disruption if conditions worsen. Fresh fruit and vegetables, many of which are imported and highly perishable, are especially vulnerable to delays and rising transport costs. Dairy products and ready meals, which depend on refrigeration and packaging gases, could also be affected by CO₂ shortages. Even beer and soft drinks may see reduced availability, given their reliance on the same gas for carbonation.
Further upstream, fertiliser shortages present a longer-term risk. Reduced availability or higher costs of fertiliser can lead to lower agricultural yields, tightening supply and pushing up prices over time. This introduces a delayed but potentially more persistent pressure on food availability.
It is important, however, to distinguish between shortages and disruption. In most scenarios being discussed, the UK is unlikely to experience widespread empty supermarket shelves. Instead, the more probable outcome is a period of reduced choice, intermittent availability, and higher prices. Certain products may become harder to find at times, or more expensive, but the system as a whole is expected to continue functioning.
What the current situation highlights is the extent to which the UK’s food supply is embedded in global industrial and energy systems. With a significant proportion of food imported and much of the domestic supply chain dependent on external inputs, shocks originating far beyond the UK’s borders can have immediate and tangible effects at home.
In that sense, the focus on chicken and pork is not incidental. These products act as early indicators of strain within a complex system. Their vulnerability reflects not a lack of agricultural capacity, but a reliance on interconnected processes that are sensitive to disruption.
As the geopolitical situation evolves, the key question is not whether the UK can produce enough food, but whether it can maintain the systems required to process, transport, and deliver it efficiently. The answer will determine whether current concerns remain precautionary—or become a more visible feature of everyday life.