18th April 2026
Over the past 24 hours, President Donald Trump has issued a series of emphatic statements about the state of the Iran conflict, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the prospects for a near‑term peace deal.
Iranian representatives, however, have publicly contradicted several of his claims, creating a widening gap between Washington's narrative and Tehran's position. This divergence matters far beyond geopolitics: it directly shapes global oil markets and, by extension, the price of petrol at UK forecourts.
Trump's Statements: "The War Is Close to Over" and Iran "Wants a Deal Very Badly"
In a pre‑taped Fox Business interview released within the last day, President Trump declared that the Iran war is “very close to being over,” insisting that Tehran “wants to make a deal very badly.” He added that if the US “pulled up stakes right now, it would take them 20 years to rebuild their country,” emphasising the scale of damage inflicted and the leverage he believes the US holds.
Trump also repeated his claim that Iran will “never close” the Strait of Hormuz again, portraying the reopening of the waterway as a concession extracted by US pressure. On social media, he went further, asserting that Iran had agreed to hand over “nuclear dust” and that Israel would be “prohibited” from launching attacks in Lebanon.
These statements form part of a broader pattern: Trump projecting imminent victory, decisive concessions, and a rapidly approaching peace deal.
Iran’s Response: Reopened Strait, Yes — But No Nuclear Concessions
Iranian officials have sharply pushed back on several of Trump’s claims.
Tehran has confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz is open but only for the duration of the current ceasefire, not permanently, and not under the terms Trump described. Iranian sources told Al Jazeera that negotiations remain “preliminary,” and they rejected claims that Iran had agreed to surrender nuclear material.
Sky News reporting reinforces this contradiction: while Iran’s foreign minister confirmed the waterway is open during the Lebanon ceasefire, officials also stated that Trump’s insistence on maintaining a blockade violates the ceasefire agreement.
In short:
Iran agrees the Strait is open, but only temporarily.
Iran denies nuclear concessions.
Iran disputes Trump’s framing of the ceasefire terms.
This divergence between the two sides’ accounts is now a defining feature of the diplomatic landscape.
Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters for UK Petrol Prices
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil chokepoint. Roughly one‑fifth of global oil and liquefied gas normally passes through it. When it closes — or even appears at risk — markets react instantly.
In the last 24 hours, oil prices have fallen below $100 a barrel after Trump’s comments suggested peace talks could resume and the strait would remain open. Asian markets rallied on the same sentiment.
Sky News also reports that UK wholesale gas prices dropped sharply following Iran’s announcement that the waterway had reopened.
But this relief is fragile.
What This Means for UK Petrol Prices Over the Next Few Weeks
Short‑term easing is possible but only if the ceasefire holds
With the strait open and markets calming, UK petrol prices could stabilise or even dip slightly in the coming days. Wholesale prices have already softened, which typically feeds through to forecourts with a lag of 1-2 weeks.
The risk of renewed volatility remains high
Iran has not agreed to Trump’s terms, and negotiations are still “preliminary.” If the ceasefire collapses or if Iran disputes US naval actions, the strait could again become restricted — even symbolically — which would send oil prices sharply upward.
UK prices are especially sensitive right now
The UK is heavily exposed to global oil price swings. Any renewed tension in the Gulf could push petrol prices higher again, particularly in rural and remote areas where supply chains are longer and margins thinner.
Market psychology matters as much as physical supply
Even if tankers continue to move, uncertainty alone can lift prices. Trump’s dramatic statements — and Iran’s equally forceful rebuttals — create a climate where traders price in risk at the slightest sign of escalation.
Finally
President Trump’s latest claims paint a picture of imminent peace and decisive US leverage. Iranian officials, however, dispute key elements of his narrative, especially regarding nuclear concessions and the permanence of the Strait of Hormuz reopening. This disconnect keeps the geopolitical situation unstable and instability is the enemy of cheap fuel.
For the UK, especially in regions like the Highlands where fuel costs already run higher, the next few weeks will hinge on whether the ceasefire holds and whether negotiations move beyond rhetoric into verifiable agreements.
If diplomacy progresses, petrol prices may ease.
If it falters, the UK could see another spike — quickly.