UK Heading for Recession - An Economist Analysis

21st April 2026

With new turmoil in the Gulf, a quarter of a million people could lose their job this year as the UK economy risks sliding into recession.

It is not just oil prices rising, food inflation is predicted to reach 10% by the end of the year.

The succession of bad news has caused a collapse in UK consumer confidence with last month showing the biggest fall in four years.