22nd April 2026
What is next for the world? I think we may already know the answer — and it is deeply troubling.
In this video, I argue that the conflict driven by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing the global economy towards a crisis on the scale of World War II. Not in terms of deaths, but in terms of systemic economic breakdown.
This is not a short-term shock. It is a structural rupture.
The warnings are already being issued. The International Monetary Fund, alongside firms such as Deloitte and EY, are signalling rising recession risk, including in the UK. But the impact will be global.
Supply chains are being disrupted across energy, raw materials and manufacturing. These are not marginal effects. They go to the core of how the modern economy works. Even if the conflict ended tomorrow, the consequences would last for years.
That means hardship. It means poverty. It may mean famine in the most exposed regions, and a refugee crisis on a scale we have not recently seen. In the UK and elsewhere, recession is increasingly likely, and if mishandled, it could become depression.
So what is required?
First, honesty about scarcity. Rationing may be necessary to ensure fair access to essential goods.
Second, protection. Stronger social security will be needed to support those most exposed to the shock.
Third, redistribution. Progressive taxation will be required to sustain that support.
And beyond that, something bigger: reform. The institutions created after World War II — from the World Bank to the World Trade Organization and NATO — were built for a different world. They are failing now.
The deeper issue is this: neoliberalism built a fragile, carbon-dependent global system. That system is now breaking.
If it has failed, what replaces it?
The Taxing Wealth Report: https://taxingwealth.uk/
00:00 — Introduction: A world heading toward systemic crisis
01:00 — Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu: war and global consequences
02:00 — Economic warnings from International Monetary Fund, Deloitte, and EY
03:00 — From short-term shock to long-term structural rupture
04:00 — Lessons from World War II: rebuilding systems, not patching them
05:10 — Supply chain breakdown: energy, materials, and production disruption
06:20 — Human consequences: poverty, famine risk, and refugee crises
07:20 — Economic fallout: recession, possible depression, and state instability
08:20 — Policy response 1: Rationing as fair distribution in scarcity
09:20 — Policy response 2: Social security expansion and progressive taxation
10:20 — Global failure of institutions like World Bank and World Trade Organisation
11:20 — Resilience vs neoliberal fragility: rebuilding supply chains and systems
12:00 — Conclusion: A call for systemic reform, sustainability, and new economic thinking
TRANSCRIPT
A transcript for this video is available at: https://www.taxresearch.org.uk