11th May 2026
Based on the latest published data, both the Scottish Government and the UK Government are currently nowhere near the build‑rates required to meet their own housing targets. The gap between targets and actual new starts is now so large that without major policy, planning, and funding changes those promises are indeed “pie in the sky”.
Scotland: Targets vs Reality
New starts are falling, not rising
Scotland recorded 15,202 new‑build starts in the year to June 2025 — the lowest since 2013 (excluding Covid years).
Starts fell 11% year‑on‑year to March 2025.
Affordable housing target is far off‑track
The Scottish Government target:
110,000 affordable homes by 2032, with 70% for social rent and 10% in rural/island areas.
Progress so far:
Only 28,537 completions by 2024–25 — roughly 26% of the target with a third of the time gone.
Affordable housing completions fell 22% in the last year.
Structural constraints are worsening
Planning delays and high construction costs are limiting supply.
SME builders—critical for rural areas like Caithness—are struggling to survive due to tight margins and mortgage‑market fragility.
Scotland
At current build rates, Scotland will not meet its 2032 targets. The fall in new starts makes the gap wider every year.
UK‑wide: A similar pattern
UK new starts remain well below long‑term need
ONS data shows that UK‑wide new‑build starts and completions remain far below the estimated 300,000 homes per year needed to stabilise the housing market.
England’s net additions (the most complete measure) have stalled
While the ONS notes that new‑build data is incomplete, the trend is clear:
New starts are not increasing at the pace required.
Mortgage constraints and high land values continue to suppress delivery.
Planning bottlenecks are a UK‑wide issue
Savills highlights that planning constraints and land scarcity are now the biggest barriers to increasing supply.
The UK:
The UK Government’s long‑standing pledge of 300,000 homes per year is not being met, and current trends suggest it will not be met without radical reform.
So are the promises “pie in the sky”?
Yes — under current conditions.
Across Scotland and the UK, the data shows:
Falling new starts
Rising costs
Planning delays
Weak SME capacity
Insufficient funding for affordable housing
Governments continue to announce ambitious targets, but the delivery mechanisms are not aligned with the promises.