19th May 2026
The latest forecasts suggest the UK energy price cap for July–September 2026 is now expected to rise quite sharply from the current April–June level.
The current cap is £1,641 a year for a “typical” dual-fuel household, but the newest forecast from Cornwall Insight published today (19 May 2026) puts the July cap at about £1,850.
That would mean:
roughly a £209 annual increase
about a 13% rise
average unit rates forecast around:
electricity: 26.03p/kWh
gas: 7.16p/kWh
standing charges forecast near:
electricity: 59p/day
gas: 30p/day
Earlier forecasts in March and April had been even worse — some close to £1,930–£1,970 — after wholesale gas prices surged during the Middle East crisis and disruption fears around the Strait of Hormuz.
The reason the latest estimate has eased slightly is that wholesale gas prices have calmed a bit in recent weeks, though they remain volatile.
The official figure from Ofgem is due by 27 May 2026.
One important point: the “£1,850” number is an annualised benchmark, not what everyone actually pays. Summer bills are usually much lower because gas heating demand drops sharply. So although the cap may jump in July, many households will not immediately feel the full increase until autumn and winter.
The bigger concern is what happens for the October 2026 cap:
if wholesale gas settles down, prices could flatten or fall slightly;
if Middle East tensions worsen again, winter caps could move higher