28th May 2026
Oil prices are extremely volatile today because traders are reacting to rapidly changing events involving the United States, Iran and the Strait of Hormuz which is one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes.
After falling sharply earlier this week on hopes of a possible US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough, prices have now rebounded again following fresh military strikes and Iranian retaliation.
Brent crude — the main international benchmark used in the UK and Europe — has recently been trading around the mid-to-high $90s per barrel after swinging violently over recent days.
The main reasons oil is moving today are:
Fear that fighting between the US and Iran could disrupt supplies further.
Ongoing uncertainty over whether the Strait of Hormuz may reopen fully or face renewed disruption.
Traders rapidly switching between “war risk” pricing and “peace deal” pricing almost hour by hour.
Falling US oil inventories, which suggest supplies are already tightening.
The Strait of Hormuz matters enormously because roughly 20% of global oil normally passes through it. Earlier disruptions there caused one of the biggest oil price spikes in decades.
Today’s movement appears to be another “risk premium” jump — meaning markets are adding extra cost because they fear future shortages rather than because shortages have fully happened yet.
For the UK, higher oil prices usually mean:
Higher petrol and diesel prices within days or weeks.
Upward pressure on heating and energy bills.
More expensive transport and food distribution.
Possible pressure on inflation and interest rates.
However, prices are also swinging downward very quickly whenever there are signs diplomacy may succeed. Markets currently believe a ceasefire or shipping agreement could still happen, which is preventing oil from staying above the extreme highs seen earlier in the spring.
Analysts remain divided on where prices go next. Some banks still expect Brent to average around $100 this year if tensions continue, while others think prices could fall sharply again if shipping through Hormuz normalises.