2nd June 2026
The broad consensus is that the oil market has so far been cushioned by emergency reserves, lower demand, rerouted supplies and expectations that the crisis will eventually ease. However, many analysts argue that if tanker flows remain heavily restricted into the summer, prices could move sharply higher rather than gradually higher.
Analysts are increasingly focused on two connected issues:
How long disruption in the Strait of Hormuz lasts
How much longer emergency stock releases can mask the supply shock
Why Hormuz matters so much
Around a fifth of globally traded oil normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts describe it as the world's most important oil chokepoint.
Several research groups note that markets have been surprisingly calm relative to the scale of disruption because governments have been releasing emergency stocks and traders still believe a longer-term reopening is likely.
The buffer stock problem
The International Energy Agency coordinated the largest emergency oil release in its history, making roughly 400 million barrels available from strategic reserves.
The concern now being raised by analysts is not that stocks are exhausted today, but that:
Inventories are falling rapidly.
Emergency releases cannot continue indefinitely.
Physical replacement of those stocks later will be expensive.
The longer the disruption lasts, the smaller the protective cushion becomes.
Brookings researchers recently argued that the oil market faces a potentially "non-linear" response. In other words, prices may not rise steadily; they could jump suddenly once traders conclude inventories are no longer sufficient to bridge the gap.
What major banks are saying
Current analyst forecasts vary enormously because everything depends on duration:
Scenario Typical analyst view
Partial disruption, gradual reopening
Brent roughly $90-$110
Disruption through summer
Brent around $120
Severe prolonged closure
$130-$150+ possible
Worst-case panic scenario
Some forecasts go above $150
HSBC recently lifted its forecast toward $95 because of expectations of a longer effective Hormuz disruption. JPMorgan has warned that prices could return to $120 or higher if recovery of tanker traffic remains slow. Other analysts have discussed $130-$150 scenarios if inventories continue falling and panic buying begins.
Why prices have not already exploded
Analysts identify several stabilisers:
Strategic reserve releases.
Increased US exports.
Alternative pipeline routes bypassing Hormuz.
Demand destruction from high prices.
Slower economic growth reducing consumption.
Expectations that the crisis is temporary.
This is why some forecasts that predicted immediate $150 oil have not materialised.
What happens if stocks keep falling?
The key date many analysts are watching is the second half of June and into July.
Recent commentary from JPMorgan and others suggests that if tanker traffic remains severely restricted and inventories continue drawing down, markets may start pricing in a prolonged shortage rather than a temporary disruption. At that point the move could be very sharp because traders would be looking beyond the remaining stockpiles and toward actual physical scarcity.
What it means for the UK
The UK has emergency stock obligations through the IEA system and participates in coordinated releases. However, Britain is not insulated from world prices. Even though the UK produces some North Sea oil, petrol, diesel, aviation fuel and many industrial energy costs are still linked to global crude prices.
If Brent moved into the $120-$150 range and stayed there:
UK petrol and diesel prices would likely rise significantly.
Inflation could reaccelerate.
Air fares and shipping costs would increase.
Pressure on the Bank of England would grow.
Economic growth would weaken.
The central question analysts are asking is no longer whether emergency stocks can soften the shock as they clearly can. The question is whether they can keep doing so long enough for normal tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to resume. If the answer becomes "no", many forecasters believe oil prices could move substantially higher very quickly.
Analysts and policymakers warn that oil and gas traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may not return to pre-war levels.
Iran is expected to retain significant influence over the waterway and potentially restrict access based on political alignment.