3rd June 2026
the emergency and strategic oil stocks that governments have been releasing since the Hormuz disruption, the answer is they do not suddenly "run out" on one particular day, but the market is approaching the point where the buffer becomes much less effective.
A few key figures help explain the situation.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) coordinated a record release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves in March.
IEA countries still collectively hold over 1.2 billion barrels of emergency stocks, plus hundreds of millions of barrels held by industry under government obligations.
However, global inventories have been falling at a record pace, with stock draws of well over 200 million barrels across March and April alone.
The IEA has warned that inventories could reach critically low levels before peak summer demand and that emergency releases are only a temporary measure.
The more important question is not "when do reserves hit zero?" but:
When do markets stop believing that inventories can cushion the shock?
Historically, oil prices often spike before stocks are exhausted because traders see the buffer shrinking.
Several analysts suggest that July-August 2026 could be the critical period. One analysis argues that the initial emergency release buffer is largely exhausted by mid-July. ADNOC's trading chief has specifically highlighted August as a potential tipping point if demand recovers while supply disruptions continue.
For the UK and Scotland, the key issue is that:
We are unlikely to physically run out of fuel.
The risk is that prices rise sharply as inventories fall.
Once stock levels become uncomfortably low, each lost barrel has a much larger effect on price than it did earlier in the crisis.
This is one reason Richard Murphy's argument attracts attention. He is less concerned about petrol stations literally running dry and more concerned about the economic effects of sustained high energy prices once the inventory cushion has been largely used up.
The big uncertainty at the moment is political rather than geological: if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in the coming weeks, the inventory problem becomes manageable. If disruption continues for many more months, then the focus shifts from "using stocks" to "demand destruction"—in plain English, higher prices forcing households and businesses to consume less oil.
That is why many energy analysts are watching July through September 2026 particularly closely. It is the period when summer demand is high, emergency releases are already well advanced, and inventories may no longer be able to hide the full scale of any ongoing supply shortfall.