4th June 2026
Donald Trump has once again placed tariffs at the heart of American economic policy, and while the headlines may focus on Washington, Beijing and Brussels, the consequences could be felt in factories, distilleries and ports across Scotland.
The latest proposals from the Trump administration would impose new tariffs on imports from dozens of countries, including the United Kingdom. The stated aim is to protect American workers and pressure trading partners to tighten supply chain standards. However, history suggests that tariffs rarely stop at national borders. They ripple through the global economy, affecting investment decisions, jobs and economic growth far beyond the United States.
For Scotland, that matters.
The United States remains one of Scotland's most important overseas markets. Scottish businesses export billions of pounds worth of goods across the Atlantic every year, supporting jobs from the Highlands to the Central Belt. Any increase in trade barriers therefore raises questions about future growth and investment.
Whisky: The Industry Watching Closely
No Scottish industry understands the danger of American tariffs better than whisky.
During Trump's first presidency, Scotch whisky became caught in the crossfire of a wider trade dispute between the United States and Europe. A 25% tariff on single malt Scotch whisky exports to America caused significant damage to the industry. Exports fell sharply and distillers warned that years of market-building work had been undermined almost overnight.
The tariffs were eventually suspended, allowing exports to recover, but the experience left a lasting lesson. The American market is simply too important to ignore.
For many distilleries, particularly smaller independent producers, the United States is one of their most profitable export destinations. Any return to tariff disputes would create fresh uncertainty at a time when the sector is already facing challenges from rising costs, changing consumer habits and economic pressures in key overseas markets.
The irony is that Scotch whisky is one of Scotland's great export success stories. Yet it remains vulnerable to decisions taken thousands of miles away in Washington.
Manufacturing and Engineering
Beyond whisky, Scotland's manufacturing sector could also feel the effects.
Scottish firms supply specialist components, machinery and engineering services to international markets. Many operate as part of global supply chains where products cross borders multiple times before reaching consumers.
Tariffs disrupt those supply chains. Increased costs can make Scottish products less competitive and encourage companies to source components elsewhere. Even businesses that do not export directly to America may be affected if their customers face higher costs or reduced demand.
This is particularly relevant for engineering companies in the North East, advanced manufacturing businesses around Glasgow and aerospace firms clustered around Prestwick and Ayrshire.
A reduction in global trade often means fewer orders, delayed investment decisions and slower growth.
Energy and the North Sea
The impact could extend to Scotland's energy sector.
Oil and gas prices are influenced by global economic activity. If widespread tariffs slow economic growth around the world, demand for energy could weaken. That might put downward pressure on oil prices, affecting investment in the North Sea.
At the same time, uncertainty tends to discourage major long-term projects. Energy companies planning investments worth hundreds of millions of pounds prefer stable trading conditions and predictable markets.
Scotland's transition towards renewable energy could also be affected if trade tensions increase the cost of imported equipment, components and materials used in wind farms, electricity networks and energy infrastructure.
The Hidden Threat: Investment
The biggest risk may not be tariffs themselves but the uncertainty they create.
Businesses can adapt to almost any set of rules if they know what those rules are. What they struggle with is unpredictability.
When company boards do not know whether tariffs will rise, fall or change altogether within a few months, investment decisions are often postponed. New factories, equipment purchases and expansion plans may be delayed.
That matters for Scotland because economic growth has already been sluggish. Public finances are under pressure, productivity growth remains weak and many employers are facing rising labour and energy costs.
The last thing businesses need is another layer of uncertainty.
What About Consumers?
Most Scottish households will not notice any immediate impact.
There is unlikely to be a sudden jump in supermarket prices because of these tariffs. The effects are more subtle and take longer to appear.
If trade disputes reduce economic growth, businesses may invest less, recruit fewer workers and offer smaller pay increases. The consequences are felt gradually through weaker economic performance rather than dramatic overnight changes.
A Reminder of Scotland's Global Connections
Trump's tariff plans are a reminder of how interconnected Scotland's economy has become.
A decision taken in Washington can affect whisky producers in Speyside, engineers in Aberdeen, aerospace workers in Ayrshire and manufacturers in Lanarkshire.
Supporters of tariffs argue they protect domestic industries and strengthen national economies. Critics argue they increase costs, disrupt trade and ultimately leave everyone poorer.
What is beyond dispute is that Scotland has a significant stake in the outcome.
For a nation that depends heavily on exports and international investment, the return of tariff politics is more than a distant diplomatic dispute. It is a development that could have real consequences for Scottish jobs, businesses and economic growth in the years ahead.
The challenge for Scotland, as for the wider UK, is navigating an increasingly uncertain world where economic policy is becoming as much about geopolitics as it is about trade. And that means keeping a close eye not only on events at Holyrood and Westminster, but also on decisions made in the White House.
The Recent Tariff History
The tariff story has become quite complicated, and many people have lost track of what is actually in force. Here's a simplified timeline of what has happened to UK exports since Trump's latest trade offensive began.
March 2025 – Steel and Aluminium Hit First
The US imposed a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminium, including UK exports. This was a major concern for British steelmakers and Scottish firms supplying specialist steel products.
April 2025 – The "Baseline" Tariff
Trump then announced a broad 10% tariff on most UK goods entering the United States. This became the minimum tariff applied to many British exports.
At the same time:
Cars faced a 25% tariff, later calculated at an effective rate of around 27.5% on many UK vehicle exports.
Auto parts were also targeted.
May 2025 – UK-US Economic Prosperity Deal
This was the agreement that Sir Keir Starmer negotiated with Trump.
The deal delivered several important concessions:
Steel and Aluminium
The US agreed to remove the 25% tariff on UK steel and aluminium, subject to quota arrangements and supply-chain conditions.
Cars
The tariff on the first 100,000 UK-built cars exported annually to the US was cut from 27.5% to 10%. This was especially important for manufacturers such as Jaguar Land Rover and the wider UK automotive supply chain.
Aerospace
Tariffs affecting aerospace products were eased, benefiting firms throughout the UK supply chain.
Whisky
Scotch whisky largely escaped the new tariff measures and avoided becoming a target in the way it had during Trump's first term. That was a major relief for Scotland's distillers. While whisky did not receive a dramatic new concession, avoiding tariffs was itself viewed as a significant success.
June 2025 to 2026 – Ongoing Adjustments
Implementation of the steel arrangements continued through quota systems and further negotiations. Some sectors received clarifications and exemptions.
However, not everything returned to where it had been before Trump acted.
The 10% baseline tariff on many UK exports remained in place, meaning British firms still face higher barriers than before the tariff dispute began.
June 2026 – Steel Tariffs Rise Again Globally
Trump has now increased US steel and aluminium tariffs for many countries to 50%. The UK's position remains more favourable because of the Economic Prosperity Deal, but businesses are watching closely because details, quotas and future negotiations still matter.
What Does This Mean for Scotland?
If you are a Scottish whisky producer, the outcome has been relatively positive. The industry avoided the kind of punitive tariffs that damaged exports during Trump's first presidency.
If you are in steel, engineering, manufacturing or supply chains linked to automotive production, the picture is more mixed. Some tariffs were removed or reduced, but the trading relationship is still more restrictive than it was before 2025.
The overall picture is mixed. Before Trump's tariff programme began, Scotch whisky, steel, aluminium, cars and most other UK exports entered the US market under relatively favourable trading arrangements. The introduction of tariffs in 2025 changed that dramatically. Steel and aluminium were hit with a 25% tariff, car exports faced duties of up to 27.5%, and many other British goods became subject to a new 10% baseline tariff. The subsequent UK-US Economic Prosperity Deal improved matters considerably. Scotch whisky largely avoided becoming a tariff target, steel and aluminium secured preferential treatment through quota arrangements, and tariffs on the first 100,000 UK-built cars exported annually to the United States were reduced to 10%. However, many British exports still face the 10% baseline tariff, meaning that while the deal prevented some of the worst outcomes feared by industry, trading conditions remain less favourable than they were before the tariff dispute began. For Scotland, this means whisky producers have largely escaped the damage seen during Trump's first term, but manufacturers, engineers and firms linked to global supply chains continue to operate in a more uncertain and costly trading environment.
So when people say "Trump removed tariffs on British whisky and steel", that is only partly true. The deal improved matters significantly compared with the worst-case scenario, but for many UK exporters the trading relationship is still less favourable than it was before the tariff campaign began.