5th June 2026
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is warning that oil buffer stocks are running down faster than expected. But nobody can say exactly when reserves will be "used up" because governments will usually change policy long before that happens.
What we do know is:
The IEA says global oil inventories are being drawn down at an unusually fast rate because supply losses from the Middle East are exceeding replacement supplies.
The IEA warned this week that stocks could reach "critically low levels" before the peak Northern Hemisphere summer demand season.
Global inventories reportedly fell by roughly 250 million barrels during March and April alone.
United States position
The U.S. has been releasing oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as part of the coordinated IEA response.
Recent figures suggest:
The SPR has fallen to roughly 357–365 million barrels, the lowest level for many years.
Commercial U.S. crude stocks have also been falling, with six consecutive weekly declines reported.
U.S. exports are running at very high levels because Europe and Asia are seeking alternatives to disrupted Middle Eastern supplies.
However, the U.S. is now a major oil producer, producing around 13.7 million barrels per day, so it is less dependent on emergency reserves than it was during the 1970s oil crises.
United Kingdom position
The UK's situation is different.
The UK does not maintain a huge government-owned strategic reserve like the U.S. Instead, it meets IEA obligations through stocks held by refiners and importers. The UK is required to hold at least 90 days of net imports in emergency stocks.
Earlier this year the UK agreed to release around 13.5 million barrels as part of the international response.
The key point for UK consumers is that petrol and diesel prices are determined by world oil prices, not by the size of Britain's emergency stockpile. Even if the UK has sufficient emergency stocks, motorists can still face higher prices if global supplies remain tight.
So when might oil prices jump again?
The biggest factor is not the absolute level of reserves but whether stock draws continue faster than they can be replaced.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration has estimated global inventories could continue falling by around 8.5 million barrels per day, with Brent crude averaging around $106 per barrel under its scenario.
Many analysts believe the real danger point comes if:
The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted for several more months.
IEA emergency releases begin to slow.
Commercial inventories fall to levels where traders become nervous about shortages.
At that point prices can rise very quickly because oil markets react to expected shortages, not just actual shortages. Reuters reported that the IEA believes even an immediate agreement could take six to eight months to fully restore flows through Hormuz.
For UK motorists, the risk is probably not that reserves literally run out, but that markets conclude the emergency stock releases are no longer sufficient to bridge the supply gap.
If inventories continue falling through the summer and Hormuz remains constrained, a return to oil prices well above $100 per barrel looks plausible. Some market commentators are discussing much higher numbers if disruptions persist, though those are worst-case scenarios rather than forecasts.
The next IEA Oil Market Report is due in mid-June and should provide a clearer picture of how rapidly stocks are still being depleted.
For Scotland and the wider UK, the practical consequence would be higher petrol, diesel, heating oil and eventually higher electricity and food transport costs, rather than a physical shortage of fuel.