5th June 2026
The latest real-time indicators from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveal an economy that is still moving forward, but not without growing strains beneath the surface.
The value of the ONS real-time indicators lies in their ability to provide an early glimpse of economic activity before the publication of traditional economic statistics.
Drawing on data ranging from retail footfall and card transactions to fuel purchases and redundancy notices, they offer a near-live picture of how businesses and consumers are responding to current economic conditions.
The picture emerging in May 2026 is one of resilience mixed with caution.
Consumers continue to spend, but not with the confidence seen during stronger economic periods. Retail footfall has remained broadly stable, suggesting that people are still visiting shops and town centres. However, spending patterns indicate that households are increasingly selective about where they spend their money. Essential purchases continue, while discretionary spending remains under pressure as families grapple with higher living costs.
Energy remains one of the biggest concerns. Gas and electricity prices are significantly higher than a year ago, reflecting ongoing pressures in global energy markets. The continuing instability in the Middle East has added uncertainty to energy supplies and prices, creating concerns for both businesses and households. Higher energy costs act as a hidden tax on the economy, reducing the money available for other spending and investment.
Fuel prices also remain elevated. Although motorists are paying more at the pump, demand for fuel has weakened. This suggests that households and businesses are adjusting their behaviour by reducing journeys and cutting costs where possible. Such changes are often among the earliest signs that consumers are becoming more cautious about the economic outlook.
The labour market presents a more encouraging picture. Potential redundancies reported through official notification systems remain below the levels seen a year ago. While this does not mean that every sector is thriving, it does indicate that widespread job losses are not currently taking place. The resilience of employment has been one of the strongest supports for the UK economy over recent years and continues to provide a degree of stability.
Yet caution remains warranted. Economic growth has held up better than many economists expected during the early months of 2026, but several headwinds are gathering strength. Rising energy costs, persistent inflationary pressures, higher government borrowing costs and international uncertainty all have the potential to slow growth later in the year. Recent official figures showed the economy growing more strongly than forecast in the first quarter, but many analysts expect conditions to become more challenging as the full impact of higher energy prices feeds through.
What makes the ONS indicators particularly valuable is that they capture change as it happens. They suggest that Britain is not facing an immediate economic downturn, but neither is it enjoying a strong and broad-based recovery. Instead, the economy appears to be in a delicate balancing act. Consumers are still spending, businesses are still trading and employers are still hiring, yet confidence remains fragile and vulnerable to further shocks.
The overall message is clear. The UK economy continues to show resilience, but that resilience is increasingly being tested. The coming months will reveal whether businesses and households can continue to absorb higher costs and uncertainty, or whether today's warning signs become tomorrow's economic slowdown.