8th June 2026
Fertiliser prices are rising again and there is a genuine shortage risk for 2026, especially for UK farmers including Scotland according to multiple industry and economic sources. The pressure is coming from Middle East conflict, tariffs, logistics bottlenecks, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries a huge share of global fertiliser shipments.
Fertiliser Prices Are Rising Again
Two major sources confirm that fertiliser prices increased in 2025 and are under renewed upward pressure in 2026:
AHDB reports nitrogen fertiliser prices rose 14% in 2025 compared with 2024, up about £50/t, though still below the extreme 2022 highs.
Prices remain above pre‑inflation levels and are vulnerable to further increases due to instability in Europe and the Middle East and the UK’s new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
The Guardian reports that since the Iran war began in February 2026, fertiliser costs for UK farmers have surged by 50–70%, driven by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Prices are rising steadily and in some cases sharply with the potential for further spikes if Middle East disruption continues.
Is There a Fertiliser Shortage? Yes — and It’s Serious
Multiple sources warn of a real shortage risk for 2026:
The Agricultural Industries Confederation (AIC) warns that farmers must order early or risk shortages caused by geopolitical pressures, EU tariffs, and long supply chains.
A detailed industry guide notes that supply disruption, delivery delays, and tighter availability are already visible, and farmers should secure “core tonnes” early.
The Guardian reports that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has throttled global fertiliser supplies, creating a global shortage that could dramatically affect food prices next year.
Why shortages are happening:
Strait of Hormuz disruption — a major global fertiliser transit route
EU tariffs on Russian fertiliser
Longer delivery timelines due to weather and logistics
Producers prioritising domestic markets
Conclusion:
There is a shortage — not hypothetical, but already affecting supply chains and pricing.
What This Means for UK & Scottish Farmers
For the UK — and especially rural Scotland — the implications are significant:
Higher costs
Fertiliser is up 50–70% since February 2026 in some cases.
Nitrogen products are up 14% year‑on‑year.
Supply delays
AIC warns that late ordering may mean no supply at all during spring 2026.
Food price impact
The Guardian warns of a “dramatic” global food price rise next year due to fertiliser shortages.
Scottish context
Highland farms — with longer supply lines and fewer local distributors — are more exposed to:
Delivery delays
Higher transport costs
Limited alternative suppliers
Outlook for the Rest of 2026
Based on all sources:
Prices likely to rise further
Middle East instability is ongoing.
CBAM tariffs will continue to push up import costs.
Supply chains remain stretched.
Shortages likely to worsen before improving
Hormuz remains partially blocked.
EU producers may prioritise their own markets.
UK farmers are delaying purchases, which increases risk.
Food price inflation is expected in 2027
Fertiliser used this year affects next year’s harvest.
The Guardian warns of a global food security problem if the blockade continues.
Yes, fertiliser prices are rising — up 14% last year, and up 50–70% since the Iran war.
Yes, there is a real shortage — driven by Hormuz disruption, tariffs, and logistics.
UK and Scottish farmers face serious supply risks for spring 2026.
Food prices may rise sharply next year if shortages continue.