8th June 2026
For centuries, naval power has been measured by the size of a nation's fleet. The British Empire ruled the waves through its battleships and the United States has dominated the oceans for decades through its aircraft carrier strike groups. More recently, China has embarked on the largest naval expansion seen since the Second World War.
Yet one of the most important lessons emerging from the war in Ukraine is that the future of naval warfare may not belong solely to the biggest ships. Instead, it may be shaped by some of the smallest and cheapest weapons ever deployed at sea.
The world's leading navies are now entering a period of profound change. While Britain, the United States, China and Europe's naval forces are all increasing their operational readiness in response to growing global tensions, they are also being forced to rethink the very nature of maritime warfare.
A Return to High Readiness
The international security environment has deteriorated rapidly over the past four years. The war in Ukraine, instability in the Middle East, attacks on commercial shipping and growing tensions in the Indo-Pacific have forced most major naval powers to maintain a much higher level of readiness than at any time since the end of the Cold War.
The Royal Navy, despite its relatively small size, is operating at a demanding pace. British warships are protecting the UK's nuclear deterrent, contributing to NATO operations in the North Atlantic and Baltic, maintaining a presence in the Mediterranean and supporting security operations in the Middle East. The quality of British ships and crews remains exceptionally high, but years of reductions have left the fleet stretched. There are simply fewer ships available to meet an increasing number of commitments.
Across the Atlantic, the United States Navy remains the world's most powerful maritime force. No other nation possesses its combination of aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, logistics ships and global reach. However, even the United States is under pressure. Its fleet is expected to deter China in the Pacific, reassure NATO allies in Europe, protect shipping in the Middle East and maintain a worldwide presence. The challenge is no longer capability—it is the sheer number of crises demanding attention at the same time.
China presents a very different picture. Over the past two decades, Beijing has invested heavily in both commercial shipbuilding and naval expansion. Today, the People's Liberation Army Navy is the largest in the world by number of ships. Unlike the United States, whose fleet is spread across the globe, much of China's naval strength is concentrated close to home. This allows it to assemble a formidable force rapidly in the Western Pacific should tensions over Taiwan or the South China Sea escalate.
Europe's naval forces have also undergone significant change. While the European Union does not possess a single navy, the combined fleets of France, Italy, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and other member states have increased defence spending, expanded joint exercises and strengthened cooperation through NATO. European navies remain highly capable, particularly in anti-submarine warfare and maritime security, although they still depend heavily on American intelligence, logistics and strategic support for large-scale operations.
Bigger Budgets, Fewer Ships
One of the great paradoxes of modern defence is that increased spending has not necessarily produced larger fleets.
The United States spends far more on defence today than it did a decade ago, yet the number of operational ships has changed relatively little. Modern warships are vastly more sophisticated than their predecessors, but they are also far more expensive, take longer to build and require increasingly specialised workforces.
Britain faces similar challenges. The Royal Navy's two aircraft carriers are among the most advanced conventional carriers ever constructed. Despite some well publicised engineering problems during their early years of service, they remain formidable warships capable of projecting air power around the globe.
The real challenge lies elsewhere
Aircraft carriers cannot operate alone. They require destroyers, frigates, submarines, replenishment ships, aircraft and thousands of highly trained personnel. As fleets have become smaller, every individual ship has become more valuable—and therefore more difficult to replace if lost or damaged.
Ukraine Changes the Rules
This is where the war in Ukraine may prove to be one of the most important military turning points of the twenty-first century.
Ukraine entered the conflict with only a modest navy compared with Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Conventional military thinking suggested that Russia should have enjoyed overwhelming maritime superiority.
Instead, Ukraine used a combination of missiles, aerial drones and uncrewed surface vessels to inflict significant damage on Russian naval forces. Several warships were sunk or severely damaged, forcing much of Russia's fleet to withdraw from its main bases in Crimea and operate much further from Ukraine's coastline.
This success has sent shockwaves through naval planners around the world.
For generations, the assumption was that only another navy could seriously threaten major warships. Ukraine has demonstrated that relatively inexpensive unmanned systems can achieve effects once thought possible only through large fleets or advanced air forces.
The Economics of Naval Warfare Have Changed
Perhaps the most significant lesson concerns cost.
A modern destroyer may cost over £1 billion.
An aircraft carrier may cost several billion pounds.
By contrast, an uncrewed surface vessel or attack drone may cost only tens or hundreds of thousands of pounds.
Even if many drones are destroyed before reaching their target, the attacker may still impose enormous financial costs on the defender. A navy could be forced to fire interceptor missiles costing millions of pounds to destroy drones worth only a tiny fraction of that amount.
This represents a dramatic shift in the economics of warfare.
Instead of relying on one expensive missile, future attacks may involve dozens—or even hundreds—of autonomous drones approaching simultaneously from multiple directions. Even sophisticated air-defence systems can struggle against such saturation attacks.
The Future Fleet
Does this mean the age of the aircraft carrier is over?
Probably not.
History suggests that new technologies rarely eliminate older ones entirely. Battleships gave way to aircraft carriers, but submarines remained vital. Missiles transformed naval warfare, yet surface ships continue to play indispensable roles.
Rather than replacing major warships, drones are likely to become part of an integrated fleet.
Tomorrow's destroyer may command swarms of airborne drones, surface drones and underwater autonomous vehicles extending many miles from the ship itself. Artificial intelligence, electronic warfare, directed-energy weapons and advanced sensors will become as important as traditional guns and missiles.
The warship of the future may act less as an isolated fighting platform and more as the command centre of an extensive unmanned network.
A New Measure of Naval Power
The Ukraine war has revealed that naval strength can no longer be measured simply by counting aircraft carriers or destroyers.
Industrial capacity now matters just as much. The ability to build ships quickly, repair battle damage, manufacture drones in large numbers and adapt technology at speed may prove decisive in any prolonged conflict.
China has invested heavily in shipbuilding capacity.
The United States retains unparalleled global naval reach.
Britain continues to field exceptionally capable ships despite the pressures on fleet size.
Europe is rebuilding maritime capability through greater cooperation and increased defence investment.
Each possesses significant strengths, but each is also adapting to a new reality.
The future of naval warfare will not belong exclusively to the nation with the biggest ships.
It will belong to the nation that combines advanced warships with affordable autonomous systems, resilient industrial capacity and the ability to innovate faster than its rivals.
The great naval arms race of the twenty-first century is no longer simply about building more ships.
It is about building smarter fleets.