10th June 2026
For decades, the Strait of Hormuz has been one of the world's most important maritime chokepoints. Around one-fifth of the world's oil supply normally passes through this narrow stretch of water linking the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean.
Whenever tensions rise in the region, energy markets become nervous, insurers increase premiums and shipping companies begin preparing for disruption.
Now, with the prospect that the Strait of Hormuz could remain partially or even completely blocked for an extended period, a new question is emerging. Is the world about to witness another boom in the construction of oil tankers and supertankers?
The evidence suggests the answer is increasingly yes.
Shipping Companies Are Ordering More Tankers
Rather than waiting to see how events unfold, many shipowners are already expanding their fleets. Industry reports show that orders for new crude oil tankers have risen sharply over the past year, with demand focusing particularly on the largest vessels capable of carrying around two million barrels of crude oil in a single voyage.
Orders have increased for:
Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs)
Suezmax tankers
Aframax tankers
Shipyards, particularly in South Korea and China, are seeing renewed interest after several quieter years for tanker construction. At the same time, the value of second-hand tankers has risen significantly as operators search for vessels that can enter service immediately rather than waiting two or three years for a new ship to be completed.
Why Longer Routes Mean More Ships
Many people assume that if the world exports the same amount of oil, it will need the same number of tankers. In reality, shipping economics work very differently.
If the Strait of Hormuz cannot be used safely, oil must take much longer routes to reach customers.
A journey from the Persian Gulf to Europe through Hormuz and the Suez Canal is roughly 6,500 nautical miles. If vessels instead have to sail around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa, the voyage can exceed 11,500 nautical miles.
That almost doubles the distance.
The result is that every tanker spends much longer at sea before it is available for another cargo. In shipping, this is known as increasing "ton-mile demand." Even though the volume of oil transported may remain unchanged, the number of ships required to carry it rises substantially because each vessel completes fewer voyages each year.
In simple terms, if every journey takes twice as long, almost twice as many ships may be needed to move the same amount of oil.
Existing Tankers Are Already in High Demand
Before new vessels can be built, shipping companies are making full use of the existing fleet.
Older tankers that might otherwise have been scrapped are remaining in service. Freight rates have climbed sharply, insurance costs have increased, and owners are earning some of the strongest returns seen for years.
Second-hand tanker prices have also surged as companies compete to secure vessels that can begin operating immediately.
This has become one of the strongest tanker markets since the disruption caused by the pandemic and the reshaping of global oil trade following sanctions on Russia.
Building a Supertanker Is Not Quick
Although there is growing demand, shipbuilding cannot respond overnight.
Constructing a modern Very Large Crude Carrier typically costs well over 100 million US dollars and usually takes between two and three years from order to delivery.
This means that shipowners are making decisions based not only on today's crisis but on what they believe the global oil market will look like towards the end of the decade.
Some analysts are even warning that if peace returns sooner than expected, too many new tankers could be delivered into a weaker market, causing freight rates to fall once again.
A Wider Transformation of Global Energy Transport
The implications extend far beyond simply building more ships.
If Hormuz remains unreliable, governments and energy companies are likely to accelerate investment in alternative export routes, including pipelines leading to ports on the Red Sea and other locations outside the Gulf.
Countries that depend heavily on imported oil may also decide to increase their strategic reserves, allowing them to withstand future disruptions without immediate shortages.
This could result in:
Larger emergency oil stockpiles.
More pipelines bypassing maritime chokepoints.
Expansion of export terminals outside the Persian Gulf.
Continued growth in the global tanker fleet.
Greater investment in naval protection for commercial shipping.
Each of these developments would reduce the world's dependence on a single narrow waterway.
Could This Be Another 1970s Moment?
History shows that major energy crises often reshape global trade for decades.
The oil shocks of the 1970s transformed energy policy, encouraged new oil exploration, improved fuel efficiency and led many countries to build strategic petroleum reserves.
Today's Strait of Hormuz crisis could prove equally significant.
If the disruption becomes long-term rather than temporary, it may trigger one of the biggest expansions of the global tanker fleet in decades while accelerating investment in alternative transport routes and new energy infrastructure.
The Bottom Line
The world is not simply facing higher oil prices. It is witnessing the possible redesign of global energy logistics.
A prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would mean longer shipping routes, higher transport costs and a sustained increase in demand for oil tankers. That is why shipowners are already placing more orders despite the enormous cost of building new vessels.
Whether this becomes a short-lived surge or the beginning of a new era for global shipping will depend largely on events in the Middle East. But one thing is already becoming clear: the shipping industry is preparing for a future in which the world's most important oil route can no longer be taken for granted.
It would also be a significant opportunity for major shipbuilding nations such as South Korea, China and, to a lesser extent, Japan, whose yards build most of the world's largest oil tankers.