12th June 2026
The Office for National Statistics reports that total goods and services trade deficit widened by £7.7 billion to £39.9 billion in the three months to April 2026, compared with the three months to January 2026.
On the monthly headline, goods exports and goods imports each rose by £0.8 billion in April 2026, equivalent to a 2.6 percent increase in exports and a 1.5 percent increase in imports versus March. Those simultaneous rises show stronger trade flows in both directions rather than a simple collapse or boom in one side of trade.
Beneath the headline numbers the composition matters. The trade in goods deficit widened to £62.5 billion over the three months to April, while the services surplus narrowed to £52.6 billion, so the net position deteriorated because goods imbalances grew faster than services could offset.
Fuel and machinery movements were important drivers of the monthly changes. Imports from the EU rose notably because of higher fuel imports, while exports benefited from increased shipments of machinery and transport equipment to both EU and non‑EU markets. The bulletin also notes lower fuel imports from some non‑EU suppliers, which the ONS links in part to disruptions such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Looking at the three‑month picture, total goods imports increased by £9.3 billion compared with the three months to January 2026, reflecting stronger demand for intermediate and capital goods as well as energy. That rise in import demand is a key reason the overall deficit widened despite export gains.
What this signals — good, bad, or indifferent
The ONS release points to a mixed to mildly negative signal for the UK economy. The rise in exports is welcome and suggests pockets of competitiveness, especially in machinery and transport equipment, but the much larger increase in goods imports and the widening goods deficit mean the net trade contribution to GDP is weakening.
When imports rise faster than exports, domestic demand is being met increasingly by foreign suppliers, which can subtract from GDP growth and put pressure on sterling and the current account over time.
There are also inflation and volatility caveats. The bulletin reports figures in current prices, and movements in fuel and other commodity prices can inflate values without reflecting higher volumes; when adjusted for inflation the underlying volume changes are smaller. Geopolitical shocks and supply‑chain disruptions cited by the ONS — for example effects linked to the Middle East — add short‑term noise that can exaggerate monthly swings.
In short, the data are not an outright crisis: exports rose and some sectors are performing well. But the widening trade deficit driven by stronger import growth and energy movements is a warning sign that net external demand is a drag rather than a boost right now, so the overall signal is cautiously negative.
Read the full ONS report HERE