12th June 2026
People keep asking me whether the UK is heading for a house price crash.
The honest answer is that nobody knows for certain. But what we can do is assess the risks, and right now those risks are much greater than many people seem willing to admit.
The UK housing market was already weakening before the latest economic shocks emerged. Mortgage rates remain far higher than they were for most of the last fifteen years. Affordability is stretched. Many buyers are struggling. Many sellers cannot achieve the prices they hoped for. Transactions are slowing, and confidence is weakening.
Against that backdrop, I examine three possible futures for the housing market.
The first is the best-case scenario. House prices stagnate, activity slows, and inflation gradually erodes property values in real terms. That would be uncomfortable, but manageable.
The second scenario is much more serious. A deeper recession, driven by rising energy costs, inflation, higher interest rates and falling household incomes, could trigger significant house price falls, widespread negative equity and a frozen property market. Many people would find themselves unable to move, while some could lose their homes altogether.
The third scenario is the one nobody wants to discuss. If we get a wider financial crisis, banks, pension funds and credit markets come under pressure, mortgage lending could contract sharply, and house prices could experience falls on a scale not seen for decades.
In this video, I explain what each of these scenarios could mean for homeowners, landlords, renters and anyone hoping to buy a property. I also discuss why liquidity matters more than paper wealth in a crisis, why financial resilience is now essential, and why some households may need to rethink their plans before economic conditions deteriorate further.
This is not a prediction. It is a risk assessment.
But if you have a mortgage, own a home, rent a property, or hope to buy one in the near future, these are risks that you cannot afford to ignore.