23rd June 2026
With the 10 years anniversary of BREXIT the Scottish Government is once again promoting the idea that an independent Scotland could rejoin the EU. How realistic is that with some major problems to be overcome not least the currency and border issues.
The Scottish Government's argument is that an independent Scotland could apply to join the EU and eventually become a member. The question is not whether Scotland could apply – it almost certainly could. The real question is how likely membership would be and how long it would take.
What would happen after independence?
If Scotland became independent, it would not automatically inherit the UK's former EU membership. It would need to apply as a new state, negotiate accession terms, and gain unanimous approval from all existing EU member states.
That process has taken years for every recent entrant. For example, Croatia took about a decade from application to membership.
The biggest hurdles
1. Currency
The EU expects new members to work towards joining the euro, although countries can take a very long time before actually adopting it.
The Scottish Government's previous independence proposals involved initially continuing to use the pound before creating a Scottish currency later. The EU would likely want clarity on that path.
2. Budget deficit
Scotland currently runs a larger fiscal deficit than most EU countries. Under EU rules, countries are expected to move towards deficits below 3% of GDP and debt below 60% of GDP.
An independent Scotland would likely face difficult decisions on spending, taxation or borrowing before meeting those targets.
3. Border with England
Perhaps the most politically sensitive issue.
If Scotland joined the EU while the rest of the UK remained outside, the border with England would become an EU external border.
That would not necessarily mean checkpoints every few miles, but there would need to be arrangements for customs, regulatory checks and immigration controls similar to those seen between the EU and non-EU countries.
Could any EU countries veto Scotland?
Yes.
Every existing member state must agree to admit a new member.
Some commentators have argued that countries facing their own separatist movements, particularly Spain, might be cautious. However, Spanish governments have generally indicated that a Scotland that became independent through a legal and constitutional process would be viewed differently from unilateral secession movements.
Why might the EU welcome Scotland?
Scotland would bring:
Significant renewable energy resources.
Large offshore wind potential.
North Sea infrastructure.
Highly educated workforce.
Strategic North Atlantic location.
Many politicians within the EU have expressed sympathy towards Scotland's pro-EU voting record, given that Scotland voted to remain in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum.
The political reality
The biggest obstacle today is probably not Brussels but independence itself.
At present there is no agreed route to a second independence referendum, public opinion remains closely divided, and the UK Government continues to oppose another vote. Until independence becomes a realistic prospect, the EU membership question remains largely hypothetical.
Whiles most agree that BREXIT has not worked out to be favourable there is not guarantee the even if Scotland was allowed back in as an independent country that the terms would be as favourable as the original terms for the UK. With a long tortuous process last perhaps 10 years or more does the population in Scotland want to go down that route.