24th June 2026
There is growing evidence that the market is already pricing in the prospect of more Iranian oil returning to world markets. That is one of the main reasons oil prices have fallen sharply over the past week.
The key developments are:
The Trump administration has announced a temporary waiver allowing Iranian oil sales for 60 days.
The US naval blockade has been eased.
Tankers are beginning to move again through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran is actively trying to increase exports to major Asian buyers such as India and China.
Traders expect Iranian exports to rise significantly if the current agreement holds.
The oil market always looks ahead. Prices are determined not just by today's supply but by what traders think supply will be in the coming months. Even before all the oil physically reaches the market, expectations of additional Iranian barrels can push prices lower.
There is also a second factor at work.
Earlier in the year markets feared a prolonged closure of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil trade normally passes. Those fears drove Brent above $120 a barrel at its peak. Now traders are increasingly betting that shipping routes will remain open and Gulf exports will recover. That removes a major "war premium" from oil prices.
In simple terms:
Factor Effect on oil price
More Iranian oil available
Down
Hormuz reopening
Down
More tankers moving
Down
Reduced risk of supply disruption
Down
Strong global economic growth
Up
Breakdown of the deal
Up
The important caveat is that the market still does not fully trust the agreement. Reports indicate that shipping insurers, tanker operators and some oil companies remain cautious. If the deal collapses or military tensions resume, prices could rebound very quickly.
For the UK and Europe, if oil stays around the current levels rather than returning to the $100-$120 range seen during the crisis, it would help:
reduce inflation,
ease pressure on petrol and diesel prices,
lower transport costs,
reduce pressure on interest rates.
For Scotland, however, there is a downside. Lower oil prices generally mean less investment in the North Sea, fewer new projects and continued pressure on employment in areas such as Aberdeen and the wider northeast economy.
A question worth watching over the next few weeks is whether the market starts to believe Iranian exports can return to something close to their pre-crisis level. If that happens, Brent crude could potentially fall into the $60-$70 range rather than stabilising around $75-$80. Some analysts are already discussing that possibility.
President Trump Has Lost According to Bloomberg
The waiver even allows the US to import Iranian crude oil and other petrochemical and petroleum products, opening the door for the first such shipments in decades. . . .
“This waiver doesn’t just weaken the pressure campaign—it puts it into reverse,” said Brett Erickson, a managing principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors. “Washington spent months building economic leverage and weeks handing Iran a path around it. What took months to build will be dismantled in a fraction of the time.” . . .
Iran had already been rushing to get millions of barrels of its oil into the global market since the peace pact with the US was announced last week.
Iran also has a large fleet of ships that can deliver the country’s cargoes.
The Treasury’s move on Monday also allows for movement of the cargoes on previously sanctioned vessels.
However bad this looks, the reality is worse. Let’s talk about who holds the cards, shall we? Hint: It’s not the American president.