26th June 2026
The fall below $75 a barrel is significant because it suggests that the "war premium" which built up during the Iran crisis has largely evaporated. Brent crude is now back close to where it was before fears of a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil Price Brent Crude at 7.00am 26 June 2026
$74.33
Is the oil price likely to keep falling?
The balance of evidence suggests there is room for further modest falls, but probably not a collapse.
Reasons prices could stay lower:
More tankers are moving through the Strait of Hormuz than many feared, easing supply concerns.
OPEC+ has been gradually increasing production, adding more supply to the market.
Chinese demand remains weaker than expected, reducing global consumption growth.
Financial markets have largely priced out the immediate risk of a major regional supply disruption.
Reasons prices could rise again:
Any renewed military action involving Iran.
Shipping attacks in the Gulf.
A surprise cut in production by OPEC+.
Stronger-than-expected global economic growth.
Expectation is -
Short term (next few weeks): Brent could trade around $70-75 if there are no fresh geopolitical shocks.
Over the rest of summer: A range of $65-75 looks possible, although oil markets can change very quickly if events in the Middle East deteriorate.
When will motorists notice?
Pump prices do not change immediately.
Normally there is:
around 1 week for wholesale fuel prices to fall;
another 1-2 weeks before supermarkets and major fuel retailers reduce pump prices.
So if oil stays below $75, many motorists should start seeing noticeable reductions over the next one to three weeks.
Current forecasts from fuel market analysts suggest:
Petrol could fall below 150p per litre.
Diesel could fall below 160p per litre, assuming crude remains around current levels.
What about heating oil?
Heating oil usually responds a little faster than road fuel because there is less taxation involved and distributors buy more directly from wholesale markets.
If crude stays around current levels:
new heating oil orders placed over the next 1-3 weeks should become cheaper;
anyone who can wait a little before filling their tank may benefit from lower quotes, provided there is no new geopolitical shock.
Why don't prices fall as quickly as they rise?
Many people become frustrated by this, but there are several reasons:
Filling stations sell fuel they bought days or weeks earlier.
Retailers try to recover the cost of higher-priced stock before cutting prices.
Around 60% of the pump price is tax (fuel duty and VAT), so only part of any crude oil fall feeds through to motorists.
Competition varies by area, with supermarket forecourts often leading price reductions.
What this means for UK households
If Brent remains around $70-75 through July, it should help:
reduce inflationary pressure,
lower transport costs,
ease pressure on delivery costs for supermarkets,
and slightly improve household finances.
However, the improvement will be gradual rather than dramatic because fuel taxes and refining costs make up a large part of the final price.