29th June 2026
Th USA Iran conflict is still in turmoil with limited attacks ongoing periodically.
The situation has deteriorated again over the past few days, although it has not yet returned to the level of disruption seen earlier in the conflict.
Oil price today has edged back over $72 but the movement has been small.
What has happened?
According to multiple reports:
The US has carried out further strikes on Iranian military targets after attacks on commercial shipping and US interests in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks against US-linked targets and regional allies, while also threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite the fighting, officials from both sides have continued to signal that they remain open to negotiations, and there are reports of attempts to restore a pause in hostilities.
Why aren't oil prices soaring?
Brent crude has risen again to around $72 per barrel, but the increase has been fairly modest considering the military escalation.
Markets appear to believe that:
Neither side wants a full-scale regional war.
Oil exports from the Gulf are still continuing, although with delays and higher insurance costs.
Other producers, particularly Saudi Arabia, still have spare capacity to offset some disruption.
Traders have already priced in a significant amount of geopolitical risk after several months of conflict.
What could make oil jump sharply?
There are several triggers that would likely push prices much higher:
A genuine closure of the Strait of Hormuz
Around one-fifth of globally traded oil normally passes through this route.
Even a partial closure could send prices rapidly towards $90–100 or higher.
Major damage to Saudi, UAE or Qatari oil facilities
Large-scale attacks on oil tankers, making insurers unwilling to cover voyages.
Failure of diplomatic talks, convincing markets that the conflict will last for months rather than weeks.
Based on current information, the most likely outcome is:
Continued military exchanges.
Periodic diplomatic efforts.
Oil remaining volatile but mostly in roughly the $70–80 per barrel range unless there is a major disruption to physical supply.
That is broadly why, despite alarming headlines, oil has not returned to the very high prices many people feared earlier this year.
What this means for the UK
For UK households and businesses:
Petrol and diesel prices may edge up over the next couple of weeks, but a dramatic spike is not yet expected.
Inflation is unlikely to surge again unless oil moves well above current levels.
If oil stays around current prices, central banks such as the Bank of England are less likely to see energy as a reason to keep interest rates higher for longer.