30th June 2026
Based on what has already been briefed ahead of today's announcement, the broad direction of the UK's Defence Investment Plan (DIP) is already fairly clear. The biggest message is that the Government believes future wars will be won as much by autonomous systems, artificial intelligence and mass-produced drones as by traditional ships, tanks and aircraft.
The main announcements expected include:
£5 billion investment in drones and autonomous systems over the next four years. This covers attack drones, surveillance drones, autonomous ground vehicles and uncrewed naval vessels. The experience of the war in Ukraine has heavily influenced this decision.
A "Hybrid Navy". Rather than relying solely on expensive crewed warships, the Royal Navy is expected to move towards fleets that combine traditional vessels with autonomous surface ships and underwater drones.
New Common Combat Vessels (CCVs). Instead of proceeding with the previously planned Type 83 destroyers, the Government is expected to order at least six new multi-role ships that will act as command hubs for swarms of autonomous systems. They are expected to enter service during the 2030s.
Investment in the Royal Marines. More than £500 million has already been announced for new high-speed commando craft, strike drones and modern equipment for the Commando Force.
Army modernisation. The Army is expected to receive autonomous reconnaissance vehicles, loitering munitions ("kamikaze drones") and new armed drones capable of operating alongside Apache attack helicopters.
Air Force investment. The plan is expected to support autonomous aircraft that can fly alongside crewed fighter jets, while continuing development of the UK's next-generation combat aircraft under the Global Combat Air Programme.
The economic angle
The Government is also presenting defence as an industrial strategy.
It has repeatedly argued that increased defence spending should:
create highly skilled manufacturing jobs;
support British shipyards and aerospace companies;
expand AI, cyber and advanced engineering industries;
strengthen domestic supply chains.
This is intended to link national security with economic growth.
What remains uncertain?
Despite today's announcements, several important questions remain unanswered.
The biggest is whether there is enough money to deliver everything being promised.
Reports suggest the Ministry of Defence still faces a substantial funding gap over the next few years, although negotiations with the Treasury appear to have reduced it. Critics argue that much of the £5 billion for drones had already been announced previously and that some expensive programmes may simply be delayed rather than fully funded.
Another key uncertainty is timing. While the Government has committed to increasing defence spending over time, there is still debate over exactly when spending will reach its longer-term targets as a share of GDP.
A possible wider implication
There is an interesting issue that could become a blog in its own right.
If the UK is committing to substantially higher defence spending over the next decade while also funding the NHS, pensions, the energy transition and major infrastructure, where will the money come from?
Will it require:
higher taxation?
larger government borrowing?
cuts to other departments?
or stronger economic growth to generate additional tax revenues?