1st July 2026
For much of the twentieth century, the world's great economic battles centred on one commodity—oil.
Nations went to extraordinary lengths to secure it. Wars were fought, alliances were forged and fortunes were made because modern economies simply could not function without reliable supplies of energy.
That story is now changing.
Oil remains important, but it is no longer the only strategic resource.
Today, the world's largest economies are competing for something much broader: the raw materials, electricity and industrial capacity needed to build the next generation of economic and military power.
What makes this competition different is that several historic transformations are happening at exactly the same time.
Artificial intelligence.
The clean energy transition.
Rising defence spending.
Ageing infrastructure.
Each would place enormous pressure on global supply chains on its own.
Together, they are creating a demand for resources that may define the global economy for decades.
Four Revolutions – One Supply Chain
At first glance these trends appear unrelated.
Artificial intelligence is about computers.
Net Zero is about climate change.
Defence is about national security.
Infrastructure is about economic growth.
Yet they all rely on remarkably similar materials.
Copper.
Steel.
Aluminium.
Concrete.
Lithium.
Nickel.
Rare earth elements.
Reliable electricity.
The same commodities are needed whether a country is building an AI data centre, manufacturing electric vehicles, constructing offshore wind farms, expanding its electricity grid or producing advanced military equipment.
Instead of several independent markets, we are increasingly seeing one giant competition for finite resources.
AI Is Not Just Software
Artificial intelligence is often presented as a digital revolution.
In reality, it has a huge physical footprint.
Every AI data centre requires land, concrete foundations, steel structures, cooling systems, fibre-optic networks, transformers and vast quantities of electricity.
As businesses adopt AI across every sector, demand for computing power continues to grow rapidly.
That means demand for physical infrastructure is growing just as quickly.
The digital economy has become one of the world's largest consumers of industrial materials.
Defence Is Entering a New Era
Across Europe, North America and Asia, governments are committing to higher defence spending.
Much of that investment involves rebuilding industrial capacity after decades of relatively modest military production.
Modern defence requires sophisticated electronics, specialist metals, advanced manufacturing and secure energy supplies.
Factories cannot be expanded overnight.
Neither can the supply chains that support them.
As defence demand increases, it competes directly with civilian industries for the same skilled workers, engineering firms and raw materials.
Net Zero Is Materials Intensive
One of the greatest misconceptions about the energy transition is that it reduces resource use.
Eventually it may reduce fossil fuel consumption.
Initially, however, it requires an extraordinary amount of construction.
Wind farms.
Solar parks.
Battery storage.
Electric vehicle charging networks.
Transmission lines.
Hydrogen production.
All demand enormous quantities of materials.
The transition is therefore creating one of the largest construction programmes in modern history.
The Forgotten Constraint: Electricity
Electricity is becoming one of the world's most valuable strategic assets.
AI cannot operate without it.
Factories cannot manufacture without it.
Electric vehicles depend upon it.
Heat pumps require it.
Data centres consume staggering amounts of power.
As demand rises, countries are discovering that building new generating capacity and expanding electricity networks takes years.
The challenge is no longer simply generating electricity.
It is delivering enough electricity to the right place at the right time.
Britain Faces Difficult Choices
For the United Kingdom, this new era presents both opportunities and risks.
The country possesses world-class universities, innovative businesses and significant renewable energy resources.
Yet it imports many of the critical materials upon which its future depends.
That creates difficult policy choices.
Should more domestic energy production continue during the transition?
Should Britain accelerate investment in electricity networks?
Can planning decisions be made more quickly without sacrificing environmental protections?
How can major infrastructure projects be delivered before rising construction costs make them unaffordable?
These questions are becoming increasingly urgent.
Scotland's Place in the New Economy
Scotland finds itself in an interesting position.
It has abundant wind, hydro and marine energy resources.
Its ports could play an increasingly important role in supporting offshore wind developments.
The Highlands are seeing growing investment in electricity transmission infrastructure.
Projects such as the long-discussed health hubs in Wick and Thurso, the proposed Thurso Education Campus, and other public infrastructure all depend on stable funding and manageable construction costs.
If commodity prices continue to rise, delays could become increasingly expensive. Every year that passes can add millions of pounds to the eventual cost of major public projects.
That is why global commodity markets matter even in communities hundreds of miles from London.
The Return of Industrial Strategy
For many years, governments assumed global markets would always provide whatever was needed.
That assumption is weakening.
Increasingly, countries are seeking to secure domestic energy supplies, develop critical mineral supply chains, encourage advanced manufacturing and strengthen industrial resilience.
Economic security is becoming as important as military security.
Governments are once again talking about strategic industries, resilient supply chains and national capability.
These are concepts that many thought had disappeared with the end of the Cold War.
The Cost of Standing Still
There is another risk that receives less attention.
Doing nothing has become expensive.
Delaying electricity networks delays AI investment.
Delaying planning approvals delays renewable energy projects.
Delaying infrastructure means building at higher prices later.
Delaying skills investment creates labour shortages that push up wages and costs.
In an era of rising commodity prices, time itself becomes an economic cost.
A Different Kind of Global Race
The headlines often focus on trade disputes, military conflicts or stock markets.
But beneath those headlines, a quieter race is unfolding.
It is a race to secure the materials, electricity and industrial capacity that will shape the next generation of economic growth.
The winners may not simply be the countries with the strongest financial markets.
They may be those with reliable energy, resilient supply chains, modern infrastructure and the ability to turn natural resources into long-term prosperity.
For Britain—and for Scotland—the challenge is not simply keeping pace.
It is deciding what role we want to play in this changing world.
The scramble has already begun.
The question is whether we are prepared for where it leads.